Something of Interest

On Saturday, September 14, 2013, I will be publishing the next edition of the Sinibaldi Report. It’s a timely and a comprehensive report that primarily features Bonds and how they are a leading indicator of economic activity.

In that issue, I reveal to what extent, or if at all, the FED will taper. I also take an in-depth look at intermarket relationships and where the United States is within the business cycle… presenting clear annotated charts and elliott wave analysis to support conclusions.

I also dive into natural resources such as oil, gold, silver, copper, crude oil plus commodity currencies and much more.

In my opinion, this is some of my best work yet. Essentially it is a blueprint for the markets for the remainder of the year. So, if you are not already a member of the Sinibaldi Analytics community... now may be the time. I have a number of ways for you to benefit:

Best Bang for Your Buck

Start with access to the Sinibaldi Report

Free Access



Best of Trading

Crude Oil Update: An Inflection Point?

It's been several months since I updated my counts on crude oil. If you are not familiar with my previous analysis, please read it before proceeding.

GAME OVER?

The following series of charts attempts to explain what I'll be looking for should the crude oil market be nearing a critical inflection point that resolves to the downside. My reasoning, as you will see is that PRICE must react in a manner that is consistent with that of a third of a third wave. If it doesn't, then price shall continue to move within a well defined price range as defined in my previous work.

 

At the weekly level, I'm working a very aggressive 1-2, 1-2 count!

Dropping to the daily chart level, from w. 1 low, crude oil is working on a corrective w.2 (red). Resistance comes into play at $92.24, the .50 retracement of w.1. Once complete, a destructive 3rd of a 3rd wave is expected. Price should move aggressively lower, on high turnover and be vertical in nature. It's Game Over for Crude Oil!

Finally, at the 4 hour chart level, I've labeled the subdivisions of the recent advance (w.2). As depicted,  I'm favoring another impulsive advance that completes where w.(v) = w.(i) @ $92.47. 

With two levels of significance of $92.24 and $92.47, and if the market puts in five waves up from w. (iv) low, then expect price to react strongly down from this fib cluster. 

Note: should price not react in this manner, then the analysis is wrong

I hope you find this information helpful and 

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Crude Oil Update

The last time I spoke about this market I was pondering a directional trade in this market and left readers with the following chart. 

Bearish Count : 1-2, 1-2

As the count implies, crude oil is setting up for a large decline that fits into the deflationary theme. 

Bullish Count : 

As in the bearish scenario above (weekly chart level) cited near term resistance may end w.(D)

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.     

Chinese Data Mask Depth of Slowdown? An Investigative Look

The following article http://nyti.ms/MsM5gb  appeared in the New York Times on June 22,2012. It described the possibility that Chinese economic data could be masking the depth of deepening slowdown. 


While all the academics and investment banks continue their debate, I thought I'd take an investigative look at the Shanghai Composite, Crude Oil, Copper and Coal.

I'd like to provide my analysis in an attempt to illustrate the value of the Elliott Wave Principle. Please form your own conclusions about the potential direction of each market. 

Shanghai Composite

I've been working this count for the Shanghai Composite since August 2011. To date nothing has changed as I'm anticipating the market will test 2028.  

Copper

Crude Oil

Coal

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 


Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 


A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.  

Heard on the Street: S&P, Nasdaq, Crude Oil, Copper

In this weeks edition of Heard on the Street I'll cover the emini S&P, Nasdaq, crude oil, and copper.


Best of Trading

Heard on the Street: S&P, DAX, CAC40, Crude Oil, Silver, Nasdaq

Announcements:

Over your investment and trading career, I'll bet you've subscribed to a few newsletters. While there may be several reasons for doing so, one thing that bothers me about a service is that there's allot of filler content. If you're like me, I just want the meat and potatoes and hold the veggies! Put another way, just show me the charts. 

As most of you are now aware, I'm building a new website that will better serve a community of elliott wave traders and enthusiast. My content and the way I present it is ever evolving and in this weeks video I will be providing a more comprehensive overview of  the global markets. While I'll spend less time on each market, the multiple time frame charts and analysis is broken down with elliott wave labels and concise commentary.

I'd like to get some feedback from readers as to whether you like the shortened version that gives you just the counts vs my previous more detailed explanation of how I arrived at the wave count. Which is more important to you?





Tags: Heard on the Street, S&P, DAX, CAC40, Crude Oil, Silver, Nasdaq

Heard On The Street

Announcements:

1. I will be vacationing from June 28 - July 12 and the last blog post will be on Monday June 27, 2011.  Regular post will resume on July 13.  

2. During my analysis of Oil I failed to mention that the charts used that pertaining to my comments were "forward contracts " of CL3-057 because of limited date on the QM mini Gold forwards.

As I reviewed the markets on Saturday morning I realized that many are on the brink of big moves. Volatility has picked up and as traders we welcome it. In this weeks video edition of Heard On The Street my hope is to identify the key areas where significant opportunities may exist. As always, these are my opinion and not a trade recommendation. You should read my complete Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement contained on the left hand side of the blog.

The markets that I'm covering are: Emini SP futures, Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Gold, CRB Index, Gold, Oil and the EUR-USD.

Best of Trading

Head On The Street: #USD, $ES-F, #CrudeOil

The Market's are certainly more volatile. In the coming weeks we'll know whether the most recent declines are corrective or the resumption of the Bear Market. In the meantime, find out where Crude Oil, the USD and the S & P are headed.

Heard On The Street

ANNOUNCEMENTS

I'd like to ask my readership for a bit of advice. In July 2010, I started blogging with a focus on the emini S&P. My analysis now follow numerous Market's around the world and I would like to know if there are any particular market's of interest that you would like me to discuss more frequently or begin coverage of. Also, today's daily and weekly commentary are vastly different in the fact that the body of work is much more detailed as well as utilizes video. I would greatly appreciate it if I could get some suggestions as to how to improve the blog or what changes you would like to see that can add value. For those who are interested e-mail me at mikesinibaldi@yahoo.com or DM me at @elliottwavelive on Twitter.

Watch my weekly video wrap up where I'll be covering the emini S&P, the EUR-USD, Crude Oil and the FTSE 100.

Best of Trading

Chart of the Day: Has Crude Oil Topped ?

Things are about to get ugly.... this

Elliott Wave Pattern is flashing "SELL " ...

At the weekly chart level, w.c circle has extended just beyond where w.c = w.a at 108.975 to complete cycle  w.b. The next move should be down hard. Certainly the first bar down is cause for alarm to a bullish stance. As price has somewhat recovered, on 5/23/2011, Goldman Sachs Reverses Course, Now Says to Buy Crude Oil! This is in my opinion an attempt to place a floor under this market however, the daily chart clearly shows why they may be wrong.

At the daily chart level, the market made a five wave decline to complete w.(1) and is now working a corrective move. Upon a closer inspection of the wave structure, the corrective pattern is that of a flat where w.B retraced more than .9 w.A. The subsequent w.C rally most commonly terminates where w.C =w.A at 105.025 with the 50% retracement in agreement at 104.7

There are other upside targets. Notice that I have added the 1.236 and 1.382 RF of w.B where w.C = 106.95-108.375. This level are also in agreement with the .618 of 107.075 and represent the upper boundary for any flat interpretation. Prints above 108.375 would invalidate the corrective count.

Given the wave pattern and two levels of agreement, there is a high probability that Crude Oil will fail and make new lows.  

I hope you found this information helpful and best of trading.

Heard on The Street

Catch up on where the S&P, Gold and Crude Oil are heading in this weeks video addition of Heard on the Street.

The Market Pulse

Announcements

I'd like to thank everyone for their patience as I spend the weekend re-installing my computer's operating system and couldn't produce the weekly edition of Heard On The Street. In an attempt to catch up, tonight's update will contain the charts of other markets as well as the S&P but will not contain much of commentary.

S&P


BULLISH

The previous three charts show the bullish scenario and termination point of w.(C) at 1346.25 or 1381.5 or at the .786 retracement of 1389.75. At the 60 min chart level, w.iv circle is unfolding in a double three with Fibonacci support surrounding 1314.25-1314.


BEARISH

OIL

Oil has completed w.(3) and w.(4) should unfold as a sharp correction according to the principle of alternation, i.e. as w.(2) was sideways expanded flat. The market should should find support at the .236 or .382 retracement of w.(3).... the most common of .382 that also corresponds to the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree.

GOLD

Best of Trading

Heard On The Street: Gold Oil Ratios... a tool to measure markets

The Gold-Oil Ratio is a tool, a barometer of sorts, that I use to provide the basis for macro views and the context for confirming wave counts in several markets. Learn why the Gold/Oil Ratio will continue to fall and it's implications for the USD, commodities and equity markets in my latest video edition of Heard On The Street.

Best of Trading.

Chart Of The Day: The Gold/Oil Ratio

Gold and Crude Oil have been on a tear since the 2009 low.  Readers of EWL were most recently updated on my bullish stance towards these markets while some elliotticians had called a top in Gold and Oil. 

The wave principle provides the context for determining the markets position and it also gives you an way of determining the probability of a future direction for the market. Today's chart of the day features a the Gold/Oil Ratio.

The significance of this chart gives traders an unfair advantage over other traders by it's ability to forecast the US economy, the USD, Commodities and direction of the equity markets.

Print out this chart and label the corrective wave structure from the high of 27.8... then compare it to my elliott wave count as I revisit the chart of the Gold/Oil Ratio and show readers how it fits into my macro view for Gold, Oil, USD, Commodities and the S&P.

You'll find all that in my special video edition of "Heard On The Street", published on March 6, 2011.

Best of Trading

Heard On The Street: #ES_F #Oil #Gold #Copper

The US Markets are closed today but you can still prepare for tomorrows trade by watching my video update of the S&P, Oil, Gold and Copper.




Best of Trading

The Market Pulse: S&P and Crude Oil

S&P

As expected, the S&P completed w.i circle and rallied. I've labeled the substructure for your review. Second waves typically retrace 50%- 62% of the previous wave, with 62% being most common. By looking at the current wave structure, there are a number of possibilities that could be unfolding. I'll have to see more of the wave structure to be certain but I will post an updated chart and discuss the implications thereof.

Crude Oil

I want to take a moment to update readers on Crude Oil. On 1/24/11, I alerted readers that Oil would find support between 8465 - 8510. The low to the exact tick was 8510. If you would like to review that video click here: http://elliottwavelive.blogspot.com/2011/01/heard-on-street-s-gold-oil-and-usd.html

Prices have rocketed and challenged the previous high of 9325. If my wave count is correct, traders that missed the termination of w.4 may get another shot as prices should decline over the next day or so to the area surrounding the previous fourth wave (8845) or the .618 retracement (8805).

I'll be monitoring this closely as this may be one of the last opportunities to ride the w.5 impulse wave to $100 - $110 .

I hope you found this update helpful.

Bst of Trading.