Real-Time Elliott Wave Analysis in E-mini S&P 500

On November 19, 2013, I made a blog post at Sinibaldi Analytics that illustrates how I use elliott wave theory to forecast market movements within the E-mini S&P 500 and S&P 500 (CASH).

The title, " Elliott Wave Forecast: Why I'm Still Bullish the S&P 500" provides you with all the details and real-time market insights which can also review by clicking on the comments section at the top of the page.

So head on over and see how I'm helping my clients pinpoint turning points in the market then I hope you'll become a member of the community of elliott wave traders and investors. It's FREE

Best of Trading

Is It Really Time To Be Bullish Natural Gas?

Recently there has been allot of chatter and interest in Natural Gas. I've created a training video to help you identify trading and investment opportunities using elliott wave and while where at it determine the direction of this energy commodity.

Enjoy


http://youtu.be/2VwwIbWS1nY

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 


Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 


A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.  

Chinese Data Mask Depth of Slowdown? An Investigative Look

The following article http://nyti.ms/MsM5gb  appeared in the New York Times on June 22,2012. It described the possibility that Chinese economic data could be masking the depth of deepening slowdown. 


While all the academics and investment banks continue their debate, I thought I'd take an investigative look at the Shanghai Composite, Crude Oil, Copper and Coal.

I'd like to provide my analysis in an attempt to illustrate the value of the Elliott Wave Principle. Please form your own conclusions about the potential direction of each market. 

Shanghai Composite

I've been working this count for the Shanghai Composite since August 2011. To date nothing has changed as I'm anticipating the market will test 2028.  

Copper

Crude Oil

Coal

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 


Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 


A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.  

Trading Lessons: Accurately Analyzing MACD Divergences

Every Friday I dedicate my day to working in a Trading Lab to either developing new trading ideas or enhancing an existing trading strategy. This weeks trading lesson is based upon two hypothetical trades that I made during Friday's session and focuses on accurately analyzing MACD divergences and how the indicator can be used to confirm your elliott wave analysis.

Numerous professional traders dispel the use of divergence analysis but as you will see, when used to compliment your elliott wave analysis, divergences can help confirm your count and assist in determining market tops and bottoms.

I hope the examples contained within the following video will encourage you to do your own analysis and become confident to act on divergence analysis.


Best of Trading

Heard on the Street: S&P, DAX, CAC40, Crude Oil, Silver, Nasdaq

Announcements:

Over your investment and trading career, I'll bet you've subscribed to a few newsletters. While there may be several reasons for doing so, one thing that bothers me about a service is that there's allot of filler content. If you're like me, I just want the meat and potatoes and hold the veggies! Put another way, just show me the charts. 

As most of you are now aware, I'm building a new website that will better serve a community of elliott wave traders and enthusiast. My content and the way I present it is ever evolving and in this weeks video I will be providing a more comprehensive overview of  the global markets. While I'll spend less time on each market, the multiple time frame charts and analysis is broken down with elliott wave labels and concise commentary.

I'd like to get some feedback from readers as to whether you like the shortened version that gives you just the counts vs my previous more detailed explanation of how I arrived at the wave count. Which is more important to you?





Tags: Heard on the Street, S&P, DAX, CAC40, Crude Oil, Silver, Nasdaq

Before the Bell: More Manipulation of Markets

Announcements:

As a result of my ongoing efforts to build my new website, some readers may have noticed that my intraday Tweets and content posting has been cut back to just M-W-F. I appreciate your understanding and patience.

When my schedule permits, I will make every effort to follow the market intraday and make blog entries.


The Emini S&P:

Here's a quote I read from the Associated Press, "Global stocks remained buoyed by the decision of five top central banks to provide unlimited amounts of dollar loans to the banking sector, easing one of the concerns driving the recent turbulence in financial markets of late."

While this persistent manipulation is frustrating in that it blows up short term wave counts.... it doesn't change the larger degree bearish view.

In Wednesday's Market Pulse, I features two existing elliott wave counts, of which the chart above was invalidated  on a break above 1199.75.

However, as in any corrective structure, there are still multiple ways of labeling the structure and often the count is unclear, sometimes until it's complete. This is why attempting to trade a complex structure can be hazardous to your account.

In this weeks edition of Heard on the Street , I'll be showing how the intraday price action still fits within the larger degree bear trend. Until then....

... here is the other interpretation, the contracting triangle. Notice how I was looking for a decline yesterday that never materialized and the wave structure continued to subdivide. Thanks Central Bankers!

Here is the updated chart through yesterdays close. The ideal target remains where w.c circle = .618 w.a circle at 1210.75.

Technicals already show divergence therefore the wave structure at this juncture is mature. Let's see how the lower intraday time frames look at the open.


Best of Trading

Before the Bell: Updated $ES_F Chart

At the 120 minute chart level, price has challenged the lower boundary of the corrective price channel. If this interpretation is correct, a decisive break will occur that draws prices to new lows.

And here is my current elliott wave count for the decline that began at 1229.75.  I'm giving this count some wiggle room as there are other ways to count this (see ALT) but I believe that the triangle w.4 red breaks up the subdivision of w.(3) well. The depth of the counter-trend rally that is currently taking place should confirm the count. If correct, I do not expect price to print above the .50 retracement level. Should price make a much deeper retracement, but not exceed 1207.5 (the invalidation point for the overall interpretation), then most likely the ALT count is correct.


Let's see what develops.



Best of Trading

Heard on the Street

Does a Recent Fibonacci Expansion Series

Confirm the Bear Market Return?

Announcements:

• On August 20,2011 I will be releasing my Global Gains -- Mid Year Forecast covering 20 markets (World indices, Currencies, Energy, Commodities and Metals) as well as some key intermarket relationships that you should be watching.
• In September, watch for details on my new premium service Signal Watch RT ® -- a premium service -- providing insightful, real - time intraday elliott wave analysis. A complete list of features, benefits and special discount pricing will be available for current Twitter followers.
•  Not a Twitter fan? You can get my most recent blog posts quickly and easily by "following my blog" or subscribing to my RSS feed. See the top right portion of my blog for details.

 The Market:

The Emini SP continues to follow my 2007-2011 analogy. It's interesting to listen to and read the bull/bear debate from the talking heads and other pundits. I'll stick with the charts!

Listen to my weekend video -- Heard on the Street -- to gain unfair advantage over other traders during the upcoming trading week.

Best of Trading

Chart of the Day: Using Elliott Wave in Real Time

A recent call illustrates the benefits of using the Elliott Wave Principle to manage trades. Watch this video as I go over the trade plan, the trade set up, and real time application of elliott wave.



Best of Trading

Heard On The Street

ANNOUNCEMENTS:

1. You'll notice a few changes to my video productions. I'll be adding a table of contents so that readers have the choice of either viewing the entire video or select specific areas of interest.
2. I'd like to thank everyone who provided feedback on my blog. Of those comments, here are a few requests that I would explore further.

• Several readers have asked for more intraday forecasts of the ES futures market's direction. What other Markets would you be interested in receiving on an intraday basis?

• What is the best method of providing intraday forecasts? Flash Alert or Live Trading Room?

Please comment directly to this feed if you have a google account or send a Twitter direct message to @elliottwavelive .


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THE MARKETS:

The broader US indices have decline for six straight weeks. News headlines have quickly soured and concerns about a global growth slowdown remain. The Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 both turned negative for the year and there's just not buying interest at this point.

The question remains... are we witnessing a correction or an escalating situation that could lead to another crippling economic downturn? To find out, watch this weeks video edition of Heard On The Street.

Chart of The Day: Three Reasons Why Copper Is Heading Lower

I can find three compelling reasons why Copper is rolling over. Is the Copper bull market over or just about to provide investors with another entry ? To find out, watch this brief video.

The Market Pulse

Today's session in the ES_F was a snorer at best. With the FED decision regarding interest rates due on Wednesday, participation will most likely remain on the lighter side. Materially, nothing has changed from the short term forecast provided within the April 24, 2011 edition of Heard On The Street. Therefore, I thought I would spend some time on Gold.

At the weekly chart level, Gold's rally is very mature with 1530 as a target for the termination of w.5.

At the daily chart level, w.(i) - w.(iii) of w.(v) of w.5 are complete and I'm calling for a modest decline to where w.(iv) =.382w.(iii) at 1491 before making a final push to 1530.

Best of Trading

Heard On The Street

The S&P has rallied off the 4/18/2011 low but is the market really heading significantly higher or is danger lurking? Learn more by viewing this weeks video edition of Heard On the Street .



Best of Trading

The Market Pulse

Today the market gaped up at the open after a very strong ON session, then spent most of the remainder of the session consolidating, yet by 4:15 pm est. the market bolted higher on earnings announcements.


Previously I left readers with the bearish pair of 1-2's and a bullish count. At today's open, price pushed above critical resistance of 1319.25 and negated the 1-2 pair leaving the bullish continuation count with w.4 still unfolding. To review those charts click here.


Unfortunately, the fact that the market has retraced a significant portion of the decline from 1335.75 to 1290.25 also places this wave count in jeopardy. At the time of this writing, price is already challenging 1335.75.


As I have mentioned in the  4/18/11 post, since w.2 was a sideways correction, w.4 MUST be a sharp correction to adhere to the rules of alternation. At this point, I can label the structure beginning at w.3 in a number of ways. Until the number of possibilities are narrowed to a select few, I am unable to make a high probability forecast.


What I am relatively sure of are the clues that technical pages provide. Note the vertical line that corresponds with a RSI reading that held 40. This is a signature of a corrective price structure. Also note that the ROC made a minimum break of the zero line another signature of a corrective phase.  Today's move pushed RSI just shy of 60. Bear rallies usually contained within a 60 reading of RSI. If RSI pushes beyond 60, odds are that w.4 ended at 1243.25 and w.iii of w.5 was underway.

As soon as I am able to identify a high probability count, I'll update everyone. Until then....

Best of Trading

The Market Pulse

Well... that was a surprise. The S&P reaffirmed the US credit rating but rated it's debt  as negative. The market was already trading lower at the time but this news certainly accelerated the move.

The chart above shows the possible wave labeling based upon today's trade. It fits well  within the context of the analysis made in my weekly edition of Heard On The Street .

As constructive as today was to the downside, by the end of the day, the market rotated back into the territory of w.i circle... creating possible pair of 1-2's. This implies selling pressure greater than today's action for tomorrows trade. There can be no mistake about it as price should decline on massive volume and thrusting in nature.

Anything less and the wave personality doesn't fit price action and the count is suspect.

However, I might be ahead of myself here. While the wave labeling in the previous chart meets the requirements for a completed corrective wave, the time relationships is a bit short. Normally, most corrections of a previous price structure occurs in a minimum of  a .382 time relationship. From the chart, you can see that the termination point of w.(ii) of 1303.75 is well shy of this relationship and therefore implies that w.(ii) is still unfolding. If so the current wave labeling would be called into question. Possibly what we are witnessing is an indication of just how weak the market is and justifies the third wave extension. We'll see tomorrow.

Best of Trading

Heard on The Street

Catch up on where the S&P, Gold and Crude Oil are heading in this weeks video addition of Heard on the Street.

The Market Pulse

Previously I left readers with bullish and bearish wave counts. The above chart has been eliminated as the 1305 low was reached beyond the maximum extensions for corrective patterns. Secondly, the ensuing price action is corrective rather than impulsive.

Therefore, the following chart(s)... contain scenarios for tomorrows session.

The preferred count has w.(i) complete where w.(ii) is unfolding in a sharp zig-zag correction that should terminate at 1320.5 to 1324. This interpretation is invalidated with a print below critical support or 1305.

Other alternates include:

Under this alternative, w.(ii) ended and prices should decline from the onset of tomorrow's open as w.(iii) down draws price significantly lower. Watch the ON session for hints that this interpretation was unfolding. As before, the interpretation is invalidated with a print above critical resistance or 1317.50.

The final alternative also has prices moving to the upside tomorrow as w.(ii) is an expanded flat correction, although not perfect in form, that should terminate between the heavy resistance levels surrounding 1320.5-1324. Once again, as in each scenario, this interpretation is invalidated with a print below critical support or 1305.

In summary, a break of 1305 opens the down to significantly lower prices while a rally to 1320.5-1324 only postpones the fact that the direction of the market is clearly down at this point.

The Market Pulse

Today was certainly quiet as the ES_F was net sideways. As I mentioned in my weekly edition of Heard On The Street for 4.3.11, the intraday internal structure looked like w.iv circle was unfolding. Today, continues that thought process as the structure counts incomplete and has yet to reach the .236 or .382 retracement levels.

Quite possibly a complex pattern will develop to reach those levels, however while the market put most to sleep, I noticed that today was an inside day that are often followed by volatile sessions. So tomorrow may set up as a trend day. With the current elliott wave count calling the market lower odds favor the downside.

Let's hope tomorrow will be a great trading day.

Best of Trading

The Market Pulse

Often the market follows a path that I expect and hits my target while there's times where the market proves to be like a spoiled child that won't behave. So Monday, I set the stage for the unexpected with the following chart with the expectation that we would possibly see another round of selling pressure or that w.4 had already completed. At this point I must concede the bearish count and adopt the count in the chart where w.5 of w.(3) is now underway....

.... but this count comes with another potential problem. That being if w.5 of w.(3) terminates at 1432.24, then w.3 < w.1 and w.5 thereby breaking an Elliott Rule. Currently, w.1 is already longer than w.3 so if this labeling is correct then w.5 must end prior to 1432.24. Notice the cloned line of w.3, extended from w.4. This would indicate that w.5 = w.3 at 1413, so that's my line in the sand to maintain this wave labeling.  As more bars of w.5 are added to the right side of the chart I will be able to provide additional upside targets. For now, the minimal expectation is a new recovery high.

Best of Trading

The Maket Pulse

Tonight's update will be brief as much the content updates the analysis that was posted yesterday and updates the charts. If you missed yesterday's edition of Heard On The Street, you can listen to it by clicking the link.

At the 240 minute chart level, the mark opened up, closed the gap at 1315 and then sold off hard. The Doji candle, forewarned of indecision, which was followed by renewed selling pressure as represented by the bearish candle. Price traded to within a point of the .382 retracement of the advance from 1279 to 1315.25.  While the decline is constructive by the modest break of the lower boundary of the corrective price channel, only a five wave decline would indicate that the bears have regained control. Keep in mind that the initial decline from 1343.25 to 1243.25 can't be counted as a clean five waves. Readers of EWL, know from previous readings that there is a high probability that the decline was only in three waves.

However, that doesn't mean that a sizeable decline isn't underway before the longer term bullish trend continues. For example, what if the current wave structure is a 3-3-5 flat? W.4 (red) could decline to just above w.1 (1224.50) without invalidating the bullish count.  Of course should w.c of w.4 = w.a, at 1215, then the count would be invalid as a fourth wave can't enter into the span of w.1.

For tomorrow and Wednesday the key to identifying the overall wave structure is whether the decline from 1315.25 is in three or five waves. Should it develop in three waves, then the possibility of a triangle w.4 could be developing.... but I'm getting ahead of myself, so let's remain focused on one wave at a time.

Support below the market is 1292.7 5 - 1294.75. Structural support lies within w.(a) at 1296.25. So be looking for the current wave down to complete at these levels. We'll see what transpires thereafter and I'll post intraday updates on Twitter.

Best of Trading