Before the Bell: Updated $ES_F Chart

At the 120 minute chart level, price has challenged the lower boundary of the corrective price channel. If this interpretation is correct, a decisive break will occur that draws prices to new lows.

And here is my current elliott wave count for the decline that began at 1229.75.  I'm giving this count some wiggle room as there are other ways to count this (see ALT) but I believe that the triangle w.4 red breaks up the subdivision of w.(3) well. The depth of the counter-trend rally that is currently taking place should confirm the count. If correct, I do not expect price to print above the .50 retracement level. Should price make a much deeper retracement, but not exceed 1207.5 (the invalidation point for the overall interpretation), then most likely the ALT count is correct.


Let's see what develops.



Best of Trading

Before The Bell: $ES_F

The following chart shows my preferred wave count where w.v is now underway. Yesterday, in the ES1 contract, the market made an initial five wave decline to complete w.i circle.

Likewise, the September contract also completed a five wave decline.

Although the market is down in the ON session, both charts have me looking up in w.ii that should take 2-3 trading days to complete. Of course there is always the possibility that the wave count is incomplete and w.(v) of w.i circle could continue to subdivide. I can make a case for another push down. So allow for further downside risk before w. ii of w. v circle begins.  

In order to evaluate each scenario, the following are my key levels for today's trade:

SEPT CONTRACT:

Below 1117.5 : Negates immediate upside for w.ii development and the count would need to be revised as well as the retracement levels for the termination of w.ii.

Above 1117.5 : Critical support for current preferred wave count and short term bullish bias.

ES1 CONTRACT:

Simply, the opening print must be above 1128.25 to maintain current preferred wave count and short term bullish bias.

Let's see what develops.

Best of Trading