Heard on the Street: S&P, Nasdaq, Crude Oil, Copper

In this weeks edition of Heard on the Street I'll cover the emini S&P, Nasdaq, crude oil, and copper.


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Heard on the Street: S&P, DAX, CAC40, Crude Oil, Silver, Nasdaq

Announcements:

Over your investment and trading career, I'll bet you've subscribed to a few newsletters. While there may be several reasons for doing so, one thing that bothers me about a service is that there's allot of filler content. If you're like me, I just want the meat and potatoes and hold the veggies! Put another way, just show me the charts. 

As most of you are now aware, I'm building a new website that will better serve a community of elliott wave traders and enthusiast. My content and the way I present it is ever evolving and in this weeks video I will be providing a more comprehensive overview of  the global markets. While I'll spend less time on each market, the multiple time frame charts and analysis is broken down with elliott wave labels and concise commentary.

I'd like to get some feedback from readers as to whether you like the shortened version that gives you just the counts vs my previous more detailed explanation of how I arrived at the wave count. Which is more important to you?





Tags: Heard on the Street, S&P, DAX, CAC40, Crude Oil, Silver, Nasdaq

Before the Bell: Updated Chart of Nasdaq

From last night's edition of The Market Pulse, the above chart was presented. As you can see price has reached my target. Please refer to my original post for further details as additional upside may exist.

Interestingly, the emini S&P traded down last night and as I woke, found that a reversal has been made. To say the least, the move has got me on the edge of my seat. However neither market is confirming the other leaving this early strength questionable.

I'm watching for a bullish trap in either market.

let's see what happens.

Heard on the Street

A Week of Confusing Price Action

Yesterday I spent 6 hours looking at multiple markets and concluded that there's allot of difficult chart patterns and questionable wave counts. Complex corrective phases are often the culprit, offering uncertainty until the wave pattern is nearly completed.

In this weeks video, I'm updating you with my counts for the emini S&P, Euro and Nasdaq.

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The Moment of Truth for $ES-F

In light of today's move to the upside and the fact that the DOW and NASDAQ haven't confirmed the S&P wave overlap (see last nights post ), I thought I would at least show the running triangle interpretation for readers. However, it's showtime and the moment of truth has arrived as the Bulls MUST push the Market beyond 1354.5 (1352.75 the ES1 equivalent) to confirm that a triangle had completed AND make a new recovery high. Failure to print above 1354.5 (1352.75 equiv.) would forewarn, as a series of lower highswill be made possibly aligning the market as I described in my 2011 - 2007 analogy.

Let's see what happens.

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The Market Pulse

This chart was presented in yesterdays video edition of Heard On The Street . If you missed it I highly recommend watching it. Two levels of significance were cited (1293.75 and 1352.25) in the video. Today's low of 1291.25 was significant for two reasons.:

1. The print below 1293.75 effectively eliminated the running flat interpretation BUT the DOW and NASDAQ have not confirmed (see additional comments below). Given the length of each wave from 1252.25, a leading diagonal (that would allow for overlap) doesn't have the right structure therefore a 5th wave cannot be underway and,
2.  The area that we were watching on an intraday basis was reached, i.e. 1290.75.  In RT and as the market was declining, I said "$ES-F: also watching the 60 min chart... 1290.75 is .618 of 1352.75- 1252.25 swing. Also 3 sd ". When  price reaches a 3 sd ....  99% of all price action should be contained within the Bollinger Band.....so I was looking for a completed move at these levels. 

This after-the-fact chart  shows that price was actually contained within 2 standard deviations of the 20-sma  by the time price actually reached 1290.75. The significance here is that a 2 sd typically contains 95% of all price action. The high probability that price would be contained and the fact that the .618 retracement was in agreement  suggested that a turn was due. For tomorrow, I'll be watching the following resistance zones: the 20-sma to act as resistance. As of the close, the sma crosses 1304.75. Additional resistance (not shown) is 1305.25 - 1306.25 and the open gap.


Additional Comments:

At the daily chart level, the running triangle remains my alternate interpretation due to the reasons provided in my weekend video. While I haven't provided a count, my preferred pattern is the bearish pattern described in the video. The general shape and outcome are clear. Once the DOW and NASDAQ confirm the same overlap that is found in the S&P, the three indices will be aligned. At that time I'll discuss the larger trend. Until then we'll stay focused on a wave at a time.

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The Market Pulse: NASDAQ and S&P

The Market has virtually no net gain or loss since March 2, 2011. By now every trader has their eyes on what appears to be a triangle pattern. With tomorrow's jobs report, traders may finally push the market in the direction of the "new" near term trend. So look for some volatility tomorrow.

Earlier today I tweeted that the NASDAQ was the weakest of the indices. I think it's important to cover this market since the greater possibility exists that the NASDAQ may lead the other markets down. Price has tested the 50-sma on five occasions. A print below 230625 would have further bearish implications, yet support is lurking just below the market at 2303 and 2281 - 2282. I wouldn't doubt that a stop running exercise will unfold. Should any sell off have substance, my near term target is 2258.

Turning my attention to the ES_F market, you can see that the market is yet to challenge the 50-sma and price is oscillating along the lower elliott channel line. As a reminder, a significant break of this line on a closing basis and a print below 130275 would negate any idea that a triangle was unfolding. Keep in mind that the March contract expires so the equivalent in the June contract is 129825.

If the wave structure is a triangle fourth wave, then w.e circle may have been struck at 1312.27 that was  followed by a minor five wave advance and as of the close... a choppy second wave is developing. This interpretation would be confirmed with a print above 1325.74. Thereafter, price will make a new recovery high to beyond 1344.07 in the $SPX and 1343 in the ES_F.

In conclusion, tomorrows trade centers around 1325.74 (bullish) and 130275 (bearish) in the continuous contract or the equivalent in the June contract is 129825 (bearish).


I hope you found this information helpful.

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