S&P 500 Jumps on FED Announcement

Friends,

Were the majority of economists caught off guard at 2:15 p.m. when the FED decision was announced? How about you? Believe it or not, I wasn't and I'll prove it for FREE. Hang with me for a moment..

Before we go any further I want to set the record straight. I'm not, by education, a degree holding Economist. Oh, and another thing, this post isn't a brag fest as those who truly know of my work and have followed me for the last three years know that I like to lead you to the water but I can't make you drink.

Those who drink, also know what to pay attention to, what things mean, how things work and how things might turn out. And that's why, I offered something of interest to non subscribers...  a free read of the first six pages of the Sinibaldi Report on Monday. It was a blueprint for yesterday and possibly for the remainder of the year. Yet there were none that drank.

I know it wasn't much but the timeliness and the proposed question I asked should have had you right off the bat paying attention.

So without any further ado, my mission is to inspire and instruct you on how to achieve your trading or investing goals. There's nothing and I mean nothing that happened yesterday that I didn't cover in the 47 page report. Did, I bat 100%? That's rare but I'll let you decide to what extent.

Seeing Is Believing

That's why I'm going to show you what really mattered heading into yesterday, cutting through all the noise, and all those free charts out there by letting you read the entire issue for free today.

AND here's what else in in store for you. I'm giving you access to my Wave Advisor Newsletter from September 20-27 as well. So, you have a free week to absorb as much as you'd like. So treat yourself.

If you are already a subscribing member to Sinibaldi Analytics , just log into the site. You'll be redirected to the appropriate page.

If, you are not, all you have to do to gain access to the report is to join the community and follow the instructions on the thank you page, then log in to view the report.

No credit cards, no hype, no sales pitches.

JUST PURE CONTENT 


To higher profits and beyond,

Mike Sinibaldi

Something of Interest

On Saturday, September 14, 2013, I will be publishing the next edition of the Sinibaldi Report. It’s a timely and a comprehensive report that primarily features Bonds and how they are a leading indicator of economic activity.

In that issue, I reveal to what extent, or if at all, the FED will taper. I also take an in-depth look at intermarket relationships and where the United States is within the business cycle… presenting clear annotated charts and elliott wave analysis to support conclusions.

I also dive into natural resources such as oil, gold, silver, copper, crude oil plus commodity currencies and much more.

In my opinion, this is some of my best work yet. Essentially it is a blueprint for the markets for the remainder of the year. So, if you are not already a member of the Sinibaldi Analytics community... now may be the time. I have a number of ways for you to benefit:

Best Bang for Your Buck

Start with access to the Sinibaldi Report

Free Access



Best of Trading

Levels I'm Watching in Emini DOW

Investor psychology very important here: A loss of 13265 which began the impulsive bar generated on 9/13/2012 that also coincides with two significant Fibonacci levels are IMO significant for the bulls.

Why?

1. While traders and investors have been clinging to the FED like a nursing baby for the better part of 3 years, there is too much political risk in this market.

2. Corporate earnings are going to be disappointing.

3. Election uncertainty.

4. Fiscal Cliff

Which if not all spooks this market remains to be seen but a loss of these levels may create enough doubt to induce a more meaningful decline.

As always, let's see.


Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.      

Why FED Will Not Disappoint

 "The Boys Club of Wall Street Cronies"

Already Know The Outcome. We Don't! 

The general market has been range bound leading up to the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. For weeks I've been looking for clues as to whether or not the central bank will use the address to pave the way for another round of monetary stimulus via quantitative easing or asset purchases.

Yesterday I gave my opinion on Gold  . Charts of silver are similar in nature. My trading plan requires another up sequence to complete what I believe is a corrective pattern. If that statement implies that recent price appreciation has built in a positive FED announcement and a sell the news event occurs, then so be it. 

Regardless of what the FED states, does or doesn't do, the charts tell me that each market should rally into my target zones and then fail. As such, I don't believe that the FED statement will take further easing off the table but the won't commit to it either therefore aligning the wave pattern top with the news event. 

I'll be monitoring gold and silver for further evidence that a fourth wave is completing. Should gold and silver trade above 1677.5 and 31.10 respectively before the market closes, it most certainly will make tomorrow even more interesting. 

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

======================================================================
Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or  securities related to this article. 

Silver Tongue Chart : Update

Silver is popping today and as I mentioned a few days ago, the metals had my full attention due to the fact that the FED minutes might indicate further QE. The following link Elliott Wave Live: Silver Tongue Chart  provided my initial comments on Silver.

The above chart shows that I was looking for an up, down sequence to complete a w.C=w.A move to 23.47. That didn't happen. However, that doesn't mean that my count is invalidated. The count invalidates on a print above the w.(1) low of 31.222 due to the fact that in motive waves, w.(4) never moves beyond the end of w.(1).  Yet, other clues suggest this interpretation is wrong. Here's why.....

• Applying time factors diminishes the probability of this count as the length of time consumed by w.(4) is much longer than w.(2). W.(2) is 8 bars long while w.(4) has reached 41 bars and is still incomplete. 

• From a proportional view, w.(4) is much larger.  

So what are the other scenarios? Are we in full bull mode or is this a counter trend move that will be fully retraced?

The alternate that I offered in my initial post has been applied to the weekly chart level as it's possible that the alternate scenario will play out and if so, price will make new lows. The fact of the matter is that it doesn't really matter if this market is in full bull mode because I'm looking to buy this market anyway and the location of my entry as well as my stop placement is what matters.

Once this advance ends the next move down will tell all. Should it be in three waves, I'm a buyer against the lows. If the decline is in five waves, then I'm a buyer at lower levels.

As always, I'll continue to monitor this chart and provide updates so that you can learn how I'm applying Elliott Wave Principle.

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

Is There Gold Still In Those Hills?

Above is a 3-day chart of gold and I thought it might be appropriate to post this chart, due to the fact that the FED's decision on rates occurs at 2:15 EST. 

You'll notice that this market has been coiling since 5/2102 and at the current time I am flat this market... waiting on the resolution of the pattern that began on 9/2011. 

If my interpretation proves correct, this market should thrust out of the triangle in an impulsive manner. I'm personally giving this triangular pattern some room as I do not know if w.c is complete. Prints above 1642.4 negate and I'm wrong! 

There are plenty of juicy stops to be hunted at just below the market shown here at the monthly chart level.  As always, maximum pain is the punishment for those who are uninformed. Larger participants won't be shy about lighting the fuse and extend the market downward.    

Ultimately, I believe that longer term, gold remains in it's bull market. What we are witnessing is the beginning of a multiple month corrective phase. 

Best of Trading

=====================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site. 

The Market Pulse

Picking up from where we left off last Wednesday, the above chart shows that I was looking for w.v circle where w.(i) had completed. Today's close above the origin of w.(i) or 1206.75 negates any interpretation of a fifth wave and my interpretation is invalid. 

Tonight we'll explore an alternate count.

W.iv circle appears to be unfolding as a W-X-Y, double zig-zag. Several Fibonacci levels ( 1120, 1228, 46-49 ) are the levels I'll be watching for failures and the termination of w.iv circle. Notice that price remains within the corrective price channel suggestion that this rally is corrective and not an impulsive move. On a closing basis, a break above the upper boundary would cause concern for this view.

Helicopter Ben's Meddling Stops The Bleeding

The rally from 1097.5 has the distinct look of Bernanke meddling. Did the market anticipate that he would leave the door open to further stimulus and then rally even more upon the FED's statement? Did the FED talk a good game and place a floor right under the market for a second time? I'll let the market provide that answer.

Even though the bulls are getting a bit brave with the Bernanke Put by their side, I see nothing to indicate that a new impulsive wave has begun. The 2007-2011 analogy that I've been following suggests that today's move, albeit slightly different, at the daily chart level (see charts below), in 2007 still suggests that a final round of selling will occur and draw prices below 1097.5.

The highlighted section shows that a new recovery high did not occur before completing another sequence of selling whereas.....

.... today's rally made a new high adding uncertainty to the overall minor degree interpretation.

 

While the daily and intraday chart levels deviates from the analogy, the monthly chart level that was show in my Global Gains video clearly shows that the larger degree is still very much intact and the rally was called for off the lows.  According to the analogy, the rally ends by months end.

Let's see what happens in the next two trading days.

Best of Trading