Showing posts with label correction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label correction. Show all posts

Friday, April 19, 2013

Using Intraday Charts to Plot a Course for Gold

On April 16 I tweeted, " IMO, Gold 60 min chart looks like a B wave from HOD implying another move up may be in store. Prints above 1393.8 bolster my ST conviction."








When I mentioned this in real time what I was doing at the time was building my larger degree wave counts. As you will see, the Elliott Wave Principle allows me to set expectation for further price development. Let's take a look at the process.

As you know, corrective patterns burn time and tend to have overlapping waves. If the advance off the lows is to be labeled as a corrective advance, subsequent price action needs to meet the rules and guidelines of elliott wave but also the characteristics of wave personality should be met.

The B wave, as it turns out is an interesting development due to the fact that:

1. The pullback associated with w.b of w. (b) retraced .786 of w.a and unfolded in a 3-3-5 pattern ... a dead giveaway, according to the rules and guidelines of a flat correction. If this was true then prices would fall in five waves from the w.b crest to complete w.c of the larger degree w.(b) and prints below the origin of w.a would invalidate my interpretation.

2. You'll notice that w.(b) was also a deep correction suggesting that the larger advance that began from 1321.5 would also unfold as a larger flat. If so, counting a five wave advance from w.(b) low would complete the pattern and set the stage for either of three events:


  • a full retracement to new lows
  • a more complex correction would develop
  • prices would continue to advance proving my analysis wrong

Moving forward these are my expectations of what I am looking for. Should the market move in a manner contrary to my analysis then odds are that I am wrong.


I've placed reverse Fibonacci extensions on the chart which reflect levels that are of interest to me. While not labeled, price has already reached a point where w.(c) = w.(a) ... the most common relationship. Thus, the limits to hold onto this interpretation would lie below 1447.8.

I hope you found this lesson helpful. Let's leave it there for now. We'll pick up this lesson over the next few days to see how things turned out.


Best of Trading



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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   
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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 




Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Is There Gold Still In Those Hills?




Above is a 3-day chart of gold and I thought it might be appropriate to post this chart, due to the fact that the FED's decision on rates occurs at 2:15 EST. 

You'll notice that this market has been coiling since 5/2102 and at the current time I am flat this market... waiting on the resolution of the pattern that began on 9/2011. 

If my interpretation proves correct, this market should thrust out of the triangle in an impulsive manner. I'm personally giving this triangular pattern some room as I do not know if w.c is complete. Prints above 1642.4 negate and I'm wrong! 






There are plenty of juicy stops to be hunted at just below the market shown here at the monthly chart level.  As always, maximum pain is the punishment for those who are uninformed. Larger participants won't be shy about lighting the fuse and extend the market downward.    


Ultimately, I believe that longer term, gold remains in it's bull market. What we are witnessing is the beginning of a multiple month corrective phase. 


Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site. 


Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Before The Bell




Here's an updated chart showing the subdivisions of the emini S&P futures at the 60 minute chart level. I'm still looking for an down up sequence that supports my blog post from last night. If you missed the call, read it here.


One additional thought in the way of an alternate count. It's possible to make a compelling case that the corrective structure is a flat. Notice the yellow highlighted area indicated that the decline from 1206.25 was an 80% retracement of the previous swing. An 80% retracement is a common retracement level for a flat. Knowing this, it's possible that yesterdays high met the minimum requirements to complete the flat correction. However, just because I could count from 1166.25 doesn't mean that w.iv circle is complete. We need to see confirming price action. Breaks of 1192 , in five waves could be the first clue that a flat correction had unfolded rather than the double zig-zag (W-X-Y).

Let's see what plays out.

Best of Trading