Corn : Update

We have been following the progression of price in Corn futures. If you missed my original thoughts on this market I recommend reading them before continuing. You can find that information by clicking here.


The following series of charts are of the ETF of Corn, ticker symbol CORN instead of corn futures due to the fact that I took a position right before the futures market closed and I didn't want to carry a position overnight given that futures actively trade between 6 pm - 3 pm est., (the bulk of the session while I sleep) and  the potential for further downside risk as you can see from the following charts.


My initial work called for a w.(ii) decline after the completion of w.(i). There are two possible counts for the termination of w.(i) that give rise to two possible entry points into the market. The following chart analysis is from an actual trade in CORN. I will be sharing this trade and thoughts with readers so that they can learn how I am using elliott wave.

NOTE: THIS IS NOT A TRADE RECOMMENDATION (see risk disclosure and disclaimers) before proceeding.

The following chart is my preferred wave count where w.(ii) is unfolding in a zig-zag correction. W.c = w.a @  $48.68 and terminates in the vicinity of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. This would be a text-book trade if my analysis is correct. Notice that the .618 retracement of w.(i) lies just below at $47.53 as well as an open gap. Both may provide support if the price continues to subdivide to the downside. 

The Trade

Buy:  200 shares @ $47.62

Filled at 47.66

Slippage (.04)

Initial Target: $52.71 with much higher potential. 

Stop: $47.50 

Nothing is perfect or guaranteed in speculating in the market and this chart shows that there is another downside target that I must account for. In this alternate count, w.(ii) unfolds in an expanded flat , as w.(i) terminates at $48.6 instead of $48.68. The w. (ii) bottom isn't expected until $47.04, where w.c = 1.618 w.a. That's certainly a deep correction but it is a valid count so long as w.(ii) doesn't exceed the origin of w.(i) at $46.85.

Under this interpretation, I would place my stop at $46.75 with the full knowledge that I'm wrong in a big way if $46.85 breaks. As such, prudent risk management calls for the actual trade under the preferred count because it offers me less initial risk and if wrong my maximum exposure is $24 + commission and slippage. 

As always, I'll continue to follow this trade so readers can see how I manage the trade. 

I hope you found this post helpful and ...

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I am LONG CORN but don't have any position in corn futures markets related to this article. 

Corn May Be Ripe For Picking: Follow the Trade

Corn Set Up May Be Ripe For Pickings....

I've been following the impulsive move in corn for awhile and I believe that corn is nearing a position where a possible trade setup is developing. This set up comes on the heals of my previous work featured here and in my opinion may be one of high reward / low risk.

Note: The following work was completed last evening so there may be some progression in price that differs from these time stamped charts. 

Since I intend to take an actual position in the ETF, ticker CORN, rather than the futures contract, readers will have to use this blog post as a guide when labeling their CORN charts. 

Over the next few weeks, periodic updates will be made so that readers can learn how I'm actively using elliott wave in real time with regard to order entry, risk management and taking profit. It should provide an excellent learning experience!

The Analysis

At the weekly chart level, Corn is advancing impulsively in five waves, of which w. (5) is underway and  mature in the fact that only w.5 red is needed to complete the move before a meaningful top is in place.

A typical elliott wave Fibonacci target for a w.5 = .618 {w.1 - w.3} at 914^4

Turning to the daily chart level, I've labeled the subdivisions of w. 4 and waves w.i and w.ii circle of w. 5 appear to be complete. Should my analysis be correct, price progression should follow the general outline provided which becomes my trade plan for this market. 

The Set Up

Dropping to the 4 hr chart, my trade plan shown at the daily chart level now includes the internal subdivisions of the w.iii circle advance. 

In order for me to consider risking my money, I'm looking for an entry that limits and clearly defines my risk while maximizes my reward. 

Pre-Trade Conditions: 

1. Corn must sketch out the remainder of w.(i) without any overlap of 745^2 (w.i extreme). In doing so, a five wave advance occurs that doesn't break the rules for impulsive waves. 

2. According to Elliott, an actionary or trend wave (5 wave move) is followed by a reactionary wave that develops in 3 waves, therefore a w.(ii) counter trend move should occur. This corrective move CANNOT print below 732^4 or the count becomes invalid.

3. Ideally, the depth of the retracement of w.(i) will not go beyond .618 w.(i) which will be calculated after the w.(i) advance has terminated. 

We'll leave it there for now. My next post in this series will review that the pre-trade conditions were met;  describe w.(ii) in further detail and set forth the conditions of the actual trade. 

Until then.....

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Monsanto : MON Chart as Loss Widens!

DOW JONES : Monsanto Co.'s (MON) fiscal fourth-quarter loss widened as the world's largest seed company saw corn and cotton seed sales decline. Looking ahead, the company predicted full-year earnings of $4.18 to $4.32 a share. On average, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters predicted $4.38.

While a few days removed from the report, the long term chart of Monsanto shows a perfect corrective elliott channel and IMO, price has  reached significant levels of interest.  Furthermore, the wave count is mature. While the possibility does exist for further upside, it appears to be limited. 

Should price continue to expand significantly beyond the typical targets associated with practicing the Elliott Wave Principal, and move outside of the corrective channel, it would be reasonable to question the overall interpretation  and seek alternate wave labeling.

Note: Additional fib clusters also lie around the $109 - 110 level. 


Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Has Corn Made a Meaningful Turn?

Mother of God. Last night I was reviewing this chart and about to call a top in $CORN as the decline was deep. While price made a low into a very significant level of support, I was and still am leery and thought that  further declines may occur. 

Today, Corn gaps up and was limit up in $ZC_F. While I won't chase this due to the fact that there is to much risk at the current levels, I may be interested in buying a pullback only if I can verify a five wave move to the upside with a protective stop below the previous lows.

Time will tell.

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.    

Heard On The Street

Announcements:

1. I will be vacationing from June 28 - July 12 and the last blog post will be on Monday June 27, 2011.  Regular post will resume on July 13.  

2. During my analysis of Oil I failed to mention that the charts used that pertaining to my comments were "forward contracts " of CL3-057 because of limited date on the QM mini Gold forwards.

As I reviewed the markets on Saturday morning I realized that many are on the brink of big moves. Volatility has picked up and as traders we welcome it. In this weeks video edition of Heard On The Street my hope is to identify the key areas where significant opportunities may exist. As always, these are my opinion and not a trade recommendation. You should read my complete Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement contained on the left hand side of the blog.

The markets that I'm covering are: Emini SP futures, Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Gold, CRB Index, Gold, Oil and the EUR-USD.

Best of Trading