Monsanto : MON Chart as Loss Widens!

DOW JONES : Monsanto Co.'s (MON) fiscal fourth-quarter loss widened as the world's largest seed company saw corn and cotton seed sales decline. Looking ahead, the company predicted full-year earnings of $4.18 to $4.32 a share. On average, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters predicted $4.38.

While a few days removed from the report, the long term chart of Monsanto shows a perfect corrective elliott channel and IMO, price has  reached significant levels of interest.  Furthermore, the wave count is mature. While the possibility does exist for further upside, it appears to be limited. 

Should price continue to expand significantly beyond the typical targets associated with practicing the Elliott Wave Principal, and move outside of the corrective channel, it would be reasonable to question the overall interpretation  and seek alternate wave labeling.

Note: Additional fib clusters also lie around the $109 - 110 level. 


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ES-F: Before the Bell .... Flash Alert

In last night's call I detailed an anticipated move to the .382 retracement level that would occur either in the ON session of for today. If you missed the call, click here to read more.

The 3600 tick charts shows that the market is working a corrective move where w.B = ..5 w.A at 1288.5. Thereafter, expect another move to the upside that will unfold in five waves where w.C = w.A at 1299 to complete w.iv (see  240 minute chart level above). Note this is agreement level as well as the test of the lower boundary of the price channel (not shown).

Let's see if the scenario plays out.

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Heard On The Street: #ES_F #Gold #Oil #Currencies

Over the past few trading sessions, the S&P has managed to rally 41.75 points off the 1243.25 bottom before giving back 10.75 points of those gains to close at 1274.25 on Friday. The advance could be aattributed to the positive news that the UN voted in favor to establish a No Fly Zone in Libya and that the Japanese were making some progress in their battle to cool the earthquake damaged  nuclear reactors .... but from an Elliott Wave perspective, the rally appears corrective.

My March 13, 2011 update identified certain 3 cycle periods that called for the next market low to be made on 3/22 - 3/23 +/- 1 day. The question is, now that the S&P has rallied, will it roll over hard and put in the low that I called for?

To answer that question plus updated charts on the currencies market, Gold and Oil... watch this weeks video addition of Heard On The Street.


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The Market Wrap

The weekly chart of the all sessions contract has been updated to include today's session. For those readers who may have missed my weekly publication, this chart and the subject matter of tonight's post will be a follow up to that video. If you haven't watched it click here

The Market continued to test lower prices but the the 127720 support area is formidable. Should that level be broken to the downside then I'll be looking for a test of 126260. Deeper support comes in between
1226-36.

At the daily chart level, the session ended with a candlestick pattern called a djoi. Dojis reflect indecision... a warning sign to traders that may signal that a change in momentum is nearby.  Given the bullish secenario that I have detailed in my weekly publication and the fact that the doji is confirming nearby weekly support of 127720, I just may have been one bar early in the wave count and calling a short term bottom. Regardless, the chart still doesn't count well and nothing that transpired today changes the forecast that I provided in yesterday's video.

Here is a closer look of the daily session and doji, along with upside resistance labels. If the bearish interpretation is in the cards, any rally attempt may test the downside trendline of the triangle and open gap at 1312 before another round of selling.  Given the lackluster close and the fact that the door remains open on both counts, what would really convince me that the bears were taking control is a significant close below the price channel. Tomorrow, that line crosses 1276.

So until the market shows it's hand, we need to remain patient.  Until then,

Best of Trading

Heard On The Street

In this weeks Edition of Heard On The Street, I take some time to explore the cyclic behavior of the S&P and present a bearish and bullish case for the upcoming week of trading. Watch this video to learn where the market may be headed and why.


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The Market Pulse

In this weeks edition of "Heard on The Street", I laid out a bullish and bearish forecast for the S&P with the expectation that the index would have to fall hard today in order to maintain my bearish stance.

After the opening bell, the market quickly turned tail and sold off  on higher volume. That's another distribution day where institutions were selling. The lower boundary of the Elliott Channel also gave way bolstering the bearish case. This was what I wanted to see and is typical of third wave price action.

The clearest wave structure can be seen in the S&P cash, rather than the E-minis. A series of 1-2's has developed but I would like to see a further decline whereas price breaks critical support at 1294.26 or 1292.5, the equivalent in the ES-F. Until then, the alternative count remains viable. Likewise a break above critical resistance at 1332.28 or 1332.50 in the ES-F, would signal that the alternative count would become the preferred wave count and that price would make a new recovery high above 1343.

I hope you found this information helpful.

Best of Trading