Just before the closing bell I left readers with this intraday chart update. What is exciting about today is that price confirmed the presence of a third wave by closing below the lower boundary of the price channel. Furthermore, the preferred count i.e. the expanded flat increases in probability as price extends lower.
The running triangle remains the alternate count. Price has reached the .618 common retracement level and where w.c = w.a at 1287.25. So here would be where the market must prove itself or the count may likely eliminated by weeks end.
At the 60 minute chart level, the market is oversold. Notice that I have placed Bollinger Bands with a channel setting of 2 sd dev. that should contain 95% of all price data. Near term, I am expecting a bounce to relieve the oversold condition.
The intraday wave count suggests that a counter trend rally may unfold either in the ON session or tomorrow and may offer a possible trade set up where the underside of the channel is retested before selling pressure would resume. This also would relieve the oversold condition.
So look for w.iv circle to reach an optimal level where w.iv circle = .382{w. (.i-.iii)} and the lower portion of the previous 4th wave between 1295.5- 1298.75.
Best of Trading
Rare for a B wave to rise in an ABC correction above a major wave 3 high as you labeled ... so not sure your entire count is even close to valid
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comment. The rules and guidelines of EWP explain that a corrective wave is always made up of three wave structures, regardless of whether it later forms a complex correction or not. B waves are never impulsive waves. If you agree that the rise from wave (3) was a three wave structure but doesn't fit within your interpretation I can accept. In the absence of seeing your charts, I have tried to label the move in question in a five wave structure and it is forced at best to arrive at such a conclusion. Therefore, the expanded flat, is my preferred count and or running triangle (ALT count), regarless of the "rarity claim" these interpretations seem to be the best fit from my point of view. Either way from a trading perspective, the trend is down in an impulsive matter consistent with the personality associated with third wave price action. This should afford you to also have a bearish bias regardless of the larger degree interpretaion.
ReplyDelete