Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Gold Update

GOLD looks to be targeting 1771 - 73 BUT... 

...that's only 3 wave advance !








Many of you are familiar with my view that Gold remains within a consolidation pattern. One such scenario, would call for a decline below 1523 in a W-X-Y pattern. Not shown, and an viable alternate count would be a triangle. BOTH LEAD TO NEW RECOVERY HIGHS once complete!!! 








Dropping to the 4hr chart level, price remains within a corrective price channel... a key signature for corrective patterns. 

While the internal subdivisions and count have been removed, a move of parity i.e. w.c= w.a comes into focus at 1771.4. That would count well as a three wave counter trend move. Should price fail at this key level, accompanied by a bearish momentum signature, a strong case can be made for the larger degree counts.  

Let's see what plays out in the weeks ahead.

Best of Trading

======================================================================
ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   
======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 



China Update : $SSE




Just a few thoughts here. Price action in $SSE has lead to another low. Today's print, not yet show in this chart, is 1991.17. I preferred to buy this mkt using a mine sweeper. The move that began on 9/5 was net sideways in a possible 4th wave triangle which is supportive of my earlier wave counts. 

$FXI is much more constructive. China Mobile, $CHL, is the largest holding of many ETF proxies for $SSE seems to have limited upside bf another round of selling. 

I'll be watching this market closely but I'm in no hurry to buy this one. I'll gladly miss the first impulsive move from any confirmed tradeable low. 


To learn more about my previous work on this market, including long term wave counts, click here 


Best of Trading 



======================================================================
ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   
======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.

Friday, November 23, 2012

Black Friday Musing : S&P Update




Last week I made mention to the significance of 1341. The daily chart shows that price retraced .618 of the previous swing. From 1341, the figure, I believe that the current advance isn't complete AND I'm watching several key levels of resistance for a turn. The confluence area of 1398.75- 1399.5 are significant as they also represent the level where the market found support ( look at the congestion area around August and Sept). What was support, is now resistance! 







Dropping to the 4 hr chart level, I find  a level of agreement between 1401.75- 1402.5. Combined the daily  levels, I would be surprised if the Fibonacci cluster didn't  put a lid on this rally. 

Today should be day of light trade and it will be interesting to see if somebody is going to push this market around.






Here is a possible wave count that I'm working. We currently have three waves up and done and a final impulsive rally is called for. If correct, price should push higher before meeting resistance near cited levels. Also, under this assumption, price has no business below 1387.25 at this point. Should price fall below the figure, the count is wrong. 


Let's see what happens. 




Best of Trading

======================================================================
ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   
======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.


Wednesday, November 21, 2012

ES Update




Yesterday afternoon I tweeted, "Let mkt tell you this move is over by putting in 5 down. Sell against high after a 3 wave counter trend. So far we don't have either".

The 15 minute chart show above (wave labels removed) illustrates a three wave corrective structure... an expanded flat. To an elliottician, that had us looking higher as a five wave decline from 1387.50 was merely w.c of the correction.

The important lesson here is that the tip off (WARNING), that the structure was corrective and once complete new highs would eventually be made, was that the intervening wave (w.b) contained overlap.  It was choppy.... not impulsive. The fact that the pattern made new highs in w.b before falling in five waves is the bull trap.

Let's take this one step further. Suppose a trader misinterpreted the larger degree pattern and viewed the decline from 1387.50 as five down and a change in the short term trend. Even then, a trader shouldn't have pulled the trigger by trading the short side because ... at the time, a case could be made that the subsequent rise from 1374 low had the personality of an impulsive wave and actually counts well as a five wave advance to 1389.25. In this case the best course of action was to wait as all trades are not created equal. 

I hope you found this helpful and ...


Best of Trading


======================================================================
ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   
======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.




Friday, November 9, 2012

ES Update: Significant Levels Were Broken





Yesterday afternoon I offered this daily chart of the eminis and said, 1375-80 technical levels of confluence is very important. Allot of air below... not much support. 






Right into the close and during the extended session to 4:15 est , professions hit the market hard pushing prices below the lower end of support band. 





After a clear three wave correction where w.(c) = 1.5 w. (a). price is falling in an in an impulsive manner confirming that the near term trend remains down.

Today we probe that air pocket to find support.


Best of Trading


======================================================================
ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   
======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.



Thursday, November 8, 2012

A Mirror Pattern in Vix





I thought I would share this chart of the $VIX where I copied the previous pattern of extreme volitility 2002-2008 then superimposed it. While the internal peaks aren't exact, what I find interesting is that peaks in volatility correspond to cycle work that conclude the bear market surrounding 2015-2016. 

One More Peak In Equities?  

As of this post, my counts for the S&P and DOW can be found here . I have not had an opportunity to update the charts to reflect most recent price action. While the post election bear raid was significant, At the monthly chart level, I'd be hard pressed to consider the decline from 1468, as significant, given that the market has only managed to retrace .382 of the advance from 1262.

Let's leave it there for today. Stay Tuned.


Best of Trading



======================================================================
ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   
======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.




Continental Resources : Earnings

Continental Resources Reports 55 Percent Production Growth And 46 Percent EBITDAX Growth In Third Quarter Of 2012

Read more about Q3 from the Company's website.






A screen shot of the weekly chart shown above was printed out on 10/26/2012 where a trendline break and  a thrusting bar to the downside. Earnings was set to be released on 11/7/2012. 






Fast forward and we see that price tested the under-side of the trend line and was rejected. Today, we should see the market reaction to earnings. While I have not yet applied elliott labels. Downside fib extension clustering,  agreement with the .618 fibo as well as chart support make this a key area that I will be focusing upon as I apply the Elliott Wave Principle to the charts.  

Look for a follow up post on my findings but by all means, don't wait for me. Learn by doing.


Best of Trading

======================================================================
ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   
======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.



Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Gold: A Critical Juncture





The weekly chart provides my preferred and alternate wave labels as well as the equivalent 10 and 40 week sma's (50-sma and 200-sma day equiv.) . Also of key interest to me is is that the trendline from 4/2009 continues to be probed and supportive of this market. As such, it is in my opinion that, while I haven't provided any bearish wave count, a failure of non elliott technicals , such as a break of the trendline and 40-week sma, could initially draw price to where w.(3) = 1.618 w.(1) at 1344.3.  






In addition, I showed this chart on Oct 19, 2012 and the cyclic turn of 11 and 22 months. Read the initial post

The October high may be MONEY given the elliott work that I have provided. If so, Gold Bulls are about to be ambushed. 

Let's See what Happens. 


Best of Trading


======================================================================
ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   
======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.


Monday, November 5, 2012

Democalypse 2012-2013


Its Monday 11/5/2012. The day before the biggest Presidential Election in modern history. That's a bold statement and one that will be debated by historians in the years that follow. 

The title of this essay is appropriately named "Democalypse 2012-2013". As you will see, your vote may create an adverse effect on you, your families and the sovereignty of the United States of America. It's Judgement Day!

The subject of Barack Obama, his administration and his Presidency is a topic for any aspiring author but my purpose herein isn't to cover Barack Obama in depth. The purpose of this scroll is to encourage you to vote and to expose voters to, what I believe are the main issues that can't be ignored.

If you value your freedom, liberty and the opportunity for prosperity then read on. If not, you will find no value in anything I say. Please close your browser and unfollow me.

Politicians Are Masterful Liars

All politicians, without exception, are Master Craftsman of lying. They're liars in my mind until such time that they deliver on their promises. If there was a PHD program of Lying, they'd have a diploma. Lying creates needed distractions, diversions and uncertainty in voters’ minds. Who is telling the truth? Lying has no consequences because the majority of voters neither have the time nor the desire to research a candidate’s platform... let alone their speech. President Obama is a pathological liar. He hasn't delivered on his promises!

Abortion, Contraception and Gay Marriage

While the politicians attempt to keep voters focused on abortion rights, free contraception and gay marriages, these are hardly the MOST IMPORTANT issues which decide the future of this great nation.  

Economic Slavery Under Obama

The fact is, your economic future is being systematically destroyed.... one day at a time. Americans may become economic slaves whereas everything they own is subject to the whims of the government's pleasure. Let me explain. 

It's clear that President Obama plan to control and increase his power if reelected by increasing the dependence on government. The greater the need, the greater votes thus more power. Absolute Power shall be derived when those who are dependent upon government entitlement exceeds those who do not. During President Obama's first term in office, he's made great strides toward fulfilling his that objective:
  1. 23 million unemployed
  2. 43 straight months of 8% unemployment
  3. 45 million on food stamps
  4. Black poverty at record highs
  5. Black youth unemployment greater than 50%
  6. Hispanic unemployment greater than 10%
  7. Skyrocketing food prices
  8. Average household income down $4,300
  9. Over 100 million on some form of welfare
  10. 6 trillion in debt (more than all other Presidents in history)

These facts should be disturbing to anyone with a High School education. Yet, they are not to those dependent upon BIG GOVERNMENT. If you fall into that category, it’s not your fault. Its human nature and a basic instinct of survival.  However, any great survivalist has to be a great thinker and that's where most fail miserably. Not because they lack the intelligence but because they accept their own fate to easily. They succumb to the addiction that the government provides. A codependency of sort defined as a psychological condition or a relationship in which a person is controlled or manipulated by another who is affected with a pathological condition (as in an addiction to alcohol or heroin); and in broader terms, it refers to the dependence on the needs of or control of another. In this case, the government or the President is virtually assured the vote needed to maintain power that controls you, the voter.  

They task at hand in 2012 for those inflicted with codependency is whether they have the will and desire to exist in another way. One of prosperity and freedom, rather than the limitations that government entitlement imposes..... Slavery upon them and their family. For those who are struggling or foresee your future possibly following the same path as I have described, the only way to avoid this plight is accept real change in governance and vote out those who oppose it.

Thomas Jefferson once said, "Should things go wrong at any time, the people will set them to rights by the peaceable exercise of their elective rights." 

Will you join us in exercising that right? 

Government Debt, Taxes and US Dollar

There is a great disparity between the state and local governments who cannot print money and sovereign national governments that can. If voters believe that either party can fix the debt problem, avoid the fiscal cliff without radical changes in Washington, please stop smoking the weed.

In the United States, you will see the Federal Government further suppress the purchasing power of the middle class by debasing the US dollar with unlimited QE programs attached to employment. So long as unemployment remains above acceptable levels, the printing press shall remain on forever burying taxpayers and their unborn children for generations to come with debt. As a result of fiscal policy, food, water, clothing and almost every other service provider imaginable will pass along the burden of increased cost to the consumer. These costs act as a form of tax to the consumer. With less disposable income and declining household income, one doesn't need an economic degree from Harvard to understand why the U.S. economy has made an anemic recovery.

I challenge every voter to review their bank statements, savings and retirement accounts and be honest with yourself. Have you created wealth during the Obama Presidency?  Are you struggling to feed your family? Living on credit? 

 If you are starting to see where I'm going with this ... hold on because it gets worse.

Excuse the digression to local governments for a moment. Property taxes are rising or will rise because municipalities can't balance a budget and control spending. Their revenues have been in decline ever since the Housing Bubble popped in 2007. Without adequate tax revenue, they too run their affairs like Washington... drowning with large deficits.  With property values suppressed and an inability to control spending, their only recourse is to raise the millage rate to generate higher revenue. This is free of income. Regardless of what you have in income, you owe taxes on the property even if you do not have a job. Sound fair? So voters support the runaway spending of yet another addict... your municipality!

Back to Big Brother. I believe that higher taxation in social security taxes and income tax is just over the horizon. With regards to social security tax, this is not really a tax but a garnishment on income that goes into the same Washington spending pot that is virtually bankrupt. Therefore, the “poor” who the Democrats swear on their grave that they will ease their burden by getting the rich bastards to pay more should worry about Social Security. Since that is a garnishment and not a tax on income, it is not refundable so the whole rich vs. poor argument is a crock – everyone is going to pay a higher percentage of withholding tax. Problem is the poor with be the ones crushed the most!

Regarding Federal income taxes, let's come to the understanding that the US Tax Code is a law. Instead of criticizing one's right to "legal deductions”, it is every taxpayer's legal right to use that law to their advantage regardless of economic status. Personally, I consider myself "middle class" yet I paid a lesser effective tax rate, on a percentage basis, than Mitt Romney. I, like Mitt Romney and President Obama, do so because my CPA knows the law. I took the deductions that I was legally entitled to. 

Who shall cast the first stone at me?  

Furthermore, I'm 100% certain that IF voters are being truthful to themselves, they'd take full advantage of tax laws if they made any significant amount of money. So get over the whole tax argument and earn your way to higher income. When you do, you'll quickly change your tune when the 1040 instructions tell you to use the Tax Computation Worksheet..... Where everything over certain amounts is a big percentage. See http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i1040.pdf for further detail.

That said, voters should look beyond the campaign rhetoric. It is in my opinion that neither candidate can keep their campaign promises on lowering income taxes. It's just not mathematically possible if Washington is serious about bringing down the deficit. So be prepared to work harder to pony up for the current administrations fiscal policy. With respect to President Obama, his path is clearly to more debt. So choose your candidate wisely. 

Who Is Barack Obama

Without a doubt, Barack Obama is the single and most controversial President of my lifetime. Since his election, a plethora of uncertainty remains in the minds of voters. Investigations remain ongoing. Much of President Obama records and past is sealed. Much of the information has been ignored by the media outlets. Much of his actions and foreign policy seems so un-American. Why? 

How can voters not wonder? Common sense tells you that he's hiding something. Skeletons are in his closet. Somewhere someone knows the truth!

In closing, if you asked me to put all else aside, and for this very reason, I can't vote for someone who I doubt shares much love for America. The principles of those who participated in the American Revolution War, the signing the United States Declaration of Independence and establishing the United States Constitution must at all cost be protected. Our Constitution is under siege by the current administration! 

Label me a Patriot, if you must. My vote is my musket. I hope you'll join me on November 6, 2012.   


This Is Mike Sinibaldi Out. 


P.S. Skynet becomes self-aware at 1:14 am Eastern time, Nov 7, 2012. Judgement Day if Obama is re-elected. You've been warned!

P.S.S. I'd be honored if you shared this with your base. It's that important! 

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Exxon Mobil : Room To Run?



Ending diagonals are one of my favorite patterns. They are discernible and a high probability trading pattern.

Exxon Mobil, ticker symbol XOM ,  has been in a strong uptrend since December 1987. As I reviewed the quarterly chart, a terminal ending diagonal caught my eye. I need to know nothing else about where to label the substructure of the larger trend. Why? Because ending diagonal primarily in the fifth wave position. A small percentage occur as the final wave in a corrective wave C. Regardless they are found at terminal points of larger patterns. When complete, price tend to retrace to the origin of the pattern in 1/2 to 1/3 the amount of time it took to create the structure.

Looking forward, Exxon has room to run after completing it's w.4 in a three wave decline. Thereafter, price should make new recovery highs in three waves ( diagonals have 3-3-3-3-3 internal subdivides).

Learning to train your eyes to see these patterns takes time and practice. As an exercise, spend some time looking at the S&P 500 at multiple degrees of trend. Not only will you get a feel for the broader market's health, but you'll also discover many trading opportunities. That's how I discovered this pattern. You will too.

I hope you found this helpful and ....


Best of Trading

======================================================================
ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   
======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.


Thursday, November 1, 2012

Possible Counts: SPX and DOW

Lacking any clear evidence of a five wave decline from either market, the wave count MUST continue to look higher. There are numerous other ways that one could count these markets. I'm providing counts that seem most appropriate at the present time.  Readers should use the counts provided as a foundation to produce other bullish counts as the days ahead unfold. My expectation is that the eventual correct counts will reveal itself as the pattern matures.



SPX


W-X-Y




This is currently my preferred count. 



A-B-C Rare C Wave Ending Diagonal







According to Robert Precter, p (37) of the Elliott Wave Principle, " a small percentage of diagonals appear in the C-wave position of A-B-C formations." Therefore, although a valid count, odds are that this count represents the less probable outcome for price progression. 





Note: one should keep in mind that an expanding triangle interpretation exists at  quarterly chart level that would carry price above 2007 levels. Resolving that count at the weekly chart level can't be supported at this time by weekly interpretation. 




DOW Futures 






Much like SPX, Dow represent a similar pattern.



I'll be providing periodic updates with respect to these charts. Let's leave it there for now and ....



Best of Trading


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