Elliott Wave, Halloween and Day Trading the S&P 500

The last two trading session were spooky. Ha? I hope tonight found you in a safe place with your family and if you happen to be "trick or treating" then you are going to love what I had in store for you ...

Now how about a treat?

Yesterday I gave up some Halloween treats on the S&P 500, Gold and the US Dollar and showed what Elliott Wave, Halloween and Day Trading the S&P 500 have in common.

Click here to learn more before this market scares the be-jesus out of you. 

Best of Trading

Mike Sinibaldi

P.S. Please do me the favor and let me know what you think by sharing your thoughts with a friend or commenting on the page itself.

P.S.S. It scares me even more to think about the valuable market insights you are missing when you don't log-in to my website every day and read my Elliott Wave Brief every morning. SO if you are not a FREE subcriber to mikesinibaldi.com then click here to gain immediate access.

Something of Interest

On Saturday, September 14, 2013, I will be publishing the next edition of the Sinibaldi Report. It’s a timely and a comprehensive report that primarily features Bonds and how they are a leading indicator of economic activity.

In that issue, I reveal to what extent, or if at all, the FED will taper. I also take an in-depth look at intermarket relationships and where the United States is within the business cycle… presenting clear annotated charts and elliott wave analysis to support conclusions.

I also dive into natural resources such as oil, gold, silver, copper, crude oil plus commodity currencies and much more.

In my opinion, this is some of my best work yet. Essentially it is a blueprint for the markets for the remainder of the year. So, if you are not already a member of the Sinibaldi Analytics community... now may be the time. I have a number of ways for you to benefit:

Best Bang for Your Buck

Start with access to the Sinibaldi Report

Free Access



Best of Trading

I've Got News...

As you know, I'm busy working with some tax experts regarding the offering of digital products outside of the U.S. At present, non-US visitors to mikesinibaldi.com are currently limited to free subscription content areas of the Site.

I've Got News

I've made some tweaks to the Sinibaldi Digest. It's now called Mike Sinibaldi's Elliott Wave Briefs (btw---it's free) so everyone can get more of my elliott wave analysis and insights. In just under five minutes, you'll know what's on my mind with regard to:

• The S&P 500 or Emini S&P Futures, 
• Currency Pairs, 
• Natural Resources (Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil) 

I'll also help you find stocks that are on the move based upon scans of all my stock lists and proprietary screens to find the potential for big gains. Most stocks appear on the list before they break out, so you'll have time to add them to your watch list and make a plan of action.

So make sure you make Mike Sinibaldi's Elliott Wave Briefs part of your day. Five minutes and you'll have know what to expect.

The new format begins on Monday, so make sure to subscribe and take full advantage of this service.

For now, here's today's free update ---  http://bit.ly/15QSN8A

Best of Trading

Sinibaldi Daily Digest

US Markets Modestly Higher

6:50 a.m. ET - Stocks rose around the world after Alcoa (AA) started the U.S. earnings season with results that beat analysts’ estimates. U.S S&P 500 Futures, look to add to yesterday's gains and may test key structural resistance of 1649 in today's session. Early price action and short-term momentum indicators concur, while the market would not been viewed over-bought below 1654.75. No surprise, Gold jumped off key technical levels that I cited (1168.5 - 1169.2) while the Japanese Yen and Sterling weakened.

In other news, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will release its "World Economic Outlook" on Tuesday at 9:30 a.m. ET. Christine Lagarde, the head of the organization, indicated that the IMF could trim global growth forecasts.

Reports out show that Chinese inflation rose more than forecast in June while producer prices fell for the 16th consecutive month, the longest slump in a decade... a deflationary trend. From the monthly comparison chart above, (wave labels removed) you can see that as China goes, so does Alcoa. While Alcoa maintained its forecast that global demand for aluminum will rise by 7 percent this year, led by 11 percent growth in China, the chart is certainly reflective of our view. 

If you are a natural resource investor or have holdings in China, you can read more in my free report on China. 


  

© 2013 Sinibaldi Analytics All rights reserved.

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LEGAL NOTICE: The material published on the mikesinibaldi.com website; including, The Sinibaldi Daily Digest, Sinibaldi Report and Mike Sinibaldi's Wave Advisor Newsletter is published by Sinibaldi Analytics, LLC and is subject to our Terms of Service Agreement. The material may be used for informational purposes only. The information contained herein, should not be construed as a solicitation to buy, sell or hold any investment or particular instrument; is impersonal and has been prepared without regard to your individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs and should not be construed as personal investment advice. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities or other instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained herein are also the opinion and general comments of the Editor and are based upon information that the editor considers reliable; however, neither Sinibaldi Analytics nor Editor warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice and there is no obligation to update or correct any content provided in the publications or website. Sinibaldi Analytics and the Editor are not liable for any errors, omissions or incomplete or out of date information.

Using Intraday Charts to Plot a Course for Gold

On April 16 I tweeted, " IMO, Gold 60 min chart looks like a B wave from HOD implying another move up may be in store. Prints above 1393.8 bolster my ST conviction."

When I mentioned this in real time what I was doing at the time was building my larger degree wave counts. As you will see, the Elliott Wave Principle allows me to set expectation for further price development. Let's take a look at the process.

As you know, corrective patterns burn time and tend to have overlapping waves. If the advance off the lows is to be labeled as a corrective advance, subsequent price action needs to meet the rules and guidelines of elliott wave but also the characteristics of wave personality should be met.

The B wave, as it turns out is an interesting development due to the fact that:

1. The pullback associated with w.b of w. (b) retraced .786 of w.a and unfolded in a 3-3-5 pattern ... a dead giveaway, according to the rules and guidelines of a flat correction. If this was true then prices would fall in five waves from the w.b crest to complete w.c of the larger degree w.(b) and prints below the origin of w.a would invalidate my interpretation.

2. You'll notice that w.(b) was also a deep correction suggesting that the larger advance that began from 1321.5 would also unfold as a larger flat. If so, counting a five wave advance from w.(b) low would complete the pattern and set the stage for either of three events:

• a full retracement to new lows
• a more complex correction would develop
• prices would continue to advance proving my analysis wrong

Moving forward these are my expectations of what I am looking for. Should the market move in a manner contrary to my analysis then odds are that I am wrong.

I've placed reverse Fibonacci extensions on the chart which reflect levels that are of interest to me. While not labeled, price has already reached a point where w.(c) = w.(a) ... the most common relationship. Thus, the limits to hold onto this interpretation would lie below 1447.8.

I hope you found this lesson helpful. Let's leave it there for now. We'll pick up this lesson over the next few days to see how things turned out.


Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

GOLD: A Contrarian View

It seemed like a quaint secluded island where I and a few minority contrarians held out as the Gold Bulls crafted a masterful plan to take prices to new all time highs.

It Didn't Happen..... You Were Warned

As most of you know I've been pounding the table for lower prices before reaching new highs. As quick summary of previous posts and tweets can be found here. (See Gold comments)

Note: This blog post provides updated charts. I will follow up with a more comprehensive analysis via video at a later date.

At daily chart level, from the w.(B) crest, I believe that we are witnessing an initial impulse wave to the downside. If correct, we still need an up, down, up, down sequence as shown to complete w.(A) of the larger five wave structure that should draw price to where w.Y = w.W @ 1398.




I hope you found this information helpful and.....

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Gold Update

GOLD looks to be targeting 1771 - 73 BUT... 

...that's only 3 wave advance !

Many of you are familiar with my view that Gold remains within a consolidation pattern. One such scenario, would call for a decline below 1523 in a W-X-Y pattern. Not shown, and an viable alternate count would be a triangle. BOTH LEAD TO NEW RECOVERY HIGHS once complete!!! 

Dropping to the 4hr chart level, price remains within a corrective price channel... a key signature for corrective patterns. 

While the internal subdivisions and count have been removed, a move of parity i.e. w.c= w.a comes into focus at 1771.4. That would count well as a three wave counter trend move. Should price fail at this key level, accompanied by a bearish momentum signature, a strong case can be made for the larger degree counts.  

Let's see what plays out in the weeks ahead.

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Gold: A Critical Juncture

The weekly chart provides my preferred and alternate wave labels as well as the equivalent 10 and 40 week sma's (50-sma and 200-sma day equiv.) . Also of key interest to me is is that the trendline from 4/2009 continues to be probed and supportive of this market. As such, it is in my opinion that, while I haven't provided any bearish wave count, a failure of non elliott technicals , such as a break of the trendline and 40-week sma, could initially draw price to where w.(3) = 1.618 w.(1) at 1344.3.  

In addition, I showed this chart on Oct 19, 2012 and the cyclic turn of 11 and 22 months. Read the initial post

The October high may be MONEY given the elliott work that I have provided. If so, Gold Bulls are about to be ambushed. 

Let's See what Happens. 

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.

Gold Cyclic Turns

Gold makes cyclic turns every 11 and 22 months and although this monthly chart only dates to 1998, its a worthwhile study to go further back in history to see how well this cyclic behavior has held up. 

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Why FED Will Not Disappoint

 "The Boys Club of Wall Street Cronies"

Already Know The Outcome. We Don't! 

The general market has been range bound leading up to the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. For weeks I've been looking for clues as to whether or not the central bank will use the address to pave the way for another round of monetary stimulus via quantitative easing or asset purchases.

Yesterday I gave my opinion on Gold  . Charts of silver are similar in nature. My trading plan requires another up sequence to complete what I believe is a corrective pattern. If that statement implies that recent price appreciation has built in a positive FED announcement and a sell the news event occurs, then so be it. 

Regardless of what the FED states, does or doesn't do, the charts tell me that each market should rally into my target zones and then fail. As such, I don't believe that the FED statement will take further easing off the table but the won't commit to it either therefore aligning the wave pattern top with the news event. 

I'll be monitoring gold and silver for further evidence that a fourth wave is completing. Should gold and silver trade above 1677.5 and 31.10 respectively before the market closes, it most certainly will make tomorrow even more interesting. 

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or  securities related to this article. 

FED Hope of Easing Sparks False Rally in Gold

Just about a month ago I provided my personal assessment of gold. Elliott Wave Live: Is There Gold Still In Those Hills?

The above chart is the interpretation along with recent price action. As I stated within the previous post, "Prints above 1642.4 negate the interpretation."

A False Rally?

While my interpretation was proven incorrect, the concept of a triangular formation was not. Here's why...

At the daily chart level, I have adjusted my wave count. Readers should be able to identify the sideways movement within the chart. If you are following the rules and guidelines set forth by the Elliott Wave Principle, there is no way to label this pattern as impulsive.   Therefore, IMO, the best wave interpretation to date is an A-B-C correction with a triangle w.b circle that needs to prove itself to me by not exceeding 1707.8.


Further Evidence

Both the CBOE Gold Index and Gold Miners charts above have a shaded region that at the time of this post also exhibit possible corrective flat patterns. That would imply another move up above the June 2012 peaks. 

In conclusion, I'm not buying into this move regardless of what the FED does. I'm a possible buyer at lower levels as the larger degree pattern requires further downside as shown here. 

I hope you found this article helpful.

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or  securities related to this article. 

Is There Gold Still In Those Hills?

Above is a 3-day chart of gold and I thought it might be appropriate to post this chart, due to the fact that the FED's decision on rates occurs at 2:15 EST. 

You'll notice that this market has been coiling since 5/2102 and at the current time I am flat this market... waiting on the resolution of the pattern that began on 9/2011. 

If my interpretation proves correct, this market should thrust out of the triangle in an impulsive manner. I'm personally giving this triangular pattern some room as I do not know if w.c is complete. Prints above 1642.4 negate and I'm wrong! 

There are plenty of juicy stops to be hunted at just below the market shown here at the monthly chart level.  As always, maximum pain is the punishment for those who are uninformed. Larger participants won't be shy about lighting the fuse and extend the market downward.    

Ultimately, I believe that longer term, gold remains in it's bull market. What we are witnessing is the beginning of a multiple month corrective phase. 

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site. 

Silver and Gold: A Possible Turn?

SILVER:

 

Silver appears to have completed a flat correction that met resistance at 40.85- .95. A break of the w.iv circle low of 38.19 confirms that w.(2) had ended, setting the stage for a third wave decline.

Gold:

The call on Gold is a bit more complex than silver. At the weekly chart level, the price of Gold has reached a high of 1629 where w.(4) divides w.{(1)-(5)} into the Golden section.

 

Looking at the daily chart, the wave pattern is mature. Little, if any, upside potential remains. I would allow room for limited upside here with the understanding that the risk now is to the upside. Prints below 1478.5 would mean that a meaningful decline should follow.

You can learn more about the long term direction of Silver, Gold, global indices, commodities and currencies,  in my upcoming Mid Year Forecast.

Best of Trading 

The Market Pulse : News Headlines Dominate Trading

After a two week vacation I'm slowing getting back into the grove. Tonight I am going to briefly discuss the larger view and provide a new count at the higher time frames by weeks end.

The wave structure that I had been working, shown above, the expanded flat was negated as the June 16 low completed a three wave structure. In my 6/28 post  , I mentioned that it was necessary for the market to print below 1252.25 in order to complete a five wave sequence.  It never happened, thus eliminating the expanded flat interpretation.

Turning to the intraday charts, today's session was dominated by Bernanke's QE3 comments. For now, I think he is just talking up the market but be certain that he will "pump and print" if needed.
Within moments of opening his mouth, Gold hit a new high and the USD was pummeled again. However, Moody's dropped a bomb on the Bulls "Risk On" parade by placing the United States' Aaa rating on review for a possible downgrade. By the close, the "Bernanke pump" had been erased.

While stating the obvious up until this point, the fact is that the market remains in a sideways trading range with wild directional swings.  There's allot of noise right now so staying focused on singular waves can save you allot of pain. 

Two counts that point down :

From the chart, the E mini SP appears to have made a five wave sequence from 1352.75 and have traced out a countertrend three wave affair that ended at 1327.75. Given the 5-3 sequence... at the minimum, another five wave structure MUST follow that could draw price to 1283.75.

Today's high could also be interpreted as w. a of a larger corrective pattern. Once complete , it will be followed by a five wave affair. It's to early to determine if this scenario will play out. Therefore, allow for the possibility of modestly higher prices before more selling pressure. A loss of 1295.25 would bolster the more immediate bearish view.

Best of Trading

Heard On The Street

Announcements:

1. I will be vacationing from June 28 - July 12 and the last blog post will be on Monday June 27, 2011.  Regular post will resume on July 13.  

2. During my analysis of Oil I failed to mention that the charts used that pertaining to my comments were "forward contracts " of CL3-057 because of limited date on the QM mini Gold forwards.

As I reviewed the markets on Saturday morning I realized that many are on the brink of big moves. Volatility has picked up and as traders we welcome it. In this weeks video edition of Heard On The Street my hope is to identify the key areas where significant opportunities may exist. As always, these are my opinion and not a trade recommendation. You should read my complete Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement contained on the left hand side of the blog.

The markets that I'm covering are: Emini SP futures, Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Gold, CRB Index, Gold, Oil and the EUR-USD.

Best of Trading

Chart of The Day: $AUD-USD

At the monthly chart level, the $AUD-USD appears to have completed Grand Supercycle w.IV where the internal structure breaks down in a w.(c) = w.(a) at 1.1086 relationship. A loss of .9705 would confirm that the top is in, clearing the way for a massive impulsive move to the downside.

This view aligns commodity currencies, like the Aussie Dollar,  to the recent strength in the USD (not shown) and the most recent weakness in the CRB Index.

Australia is a large exporter of gold, copper and wheat  and there is a high degree of correlation between the AUD and these markets. With the wave count calling for a decline in the currency against the USD, one would expect that the price of correlated markets to also decline. Needless to say, each of the corresponding commodity charts are bearish.