ES: At the Bell Update

Just a quick update as to why 1488-89 level is significant.

• It marks a w.c=w.a move from 1530 top at 1489.50 however, IMO the count (not shown appears incomplete suggesting more downside risk.
• It is in agreement with 1488 fib
• It was also a previous extension from 1340.25 to 1466 measure from 1382.25 ( often fibs are revisited)

A significant break of this level either in the ON session or early tomorrow would possibly open the door to lower price discovery. There are a few single support nodes at 1473.50 and 1478 but the real test if market participants are so include is at previous structural support (horizontal cyan line) and the 1.618 extension show at 1467.75.

Let's see what develops.

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Chart of Day: Caterpillar - A unconfirmed Dark Cloud Cover

At the weekly chart level, Caterpillar, ticker symbol... CAT,  may be forming a bearish 2-bar pattern such as Dark Cloud Cover or  a  Bearish Engulfing Pattern. 

As of today, the pattern is unconfirmed but so long as price closed within the bottom half of the previous weekly bar, or engulfs the entire bar.... either pattern will be confirmed.

Yet, there is more information to be gained from this chart. While the elliott wave count has been removed for illustration purposes, notice that the pattern has developed at resistance.

Let's first see if the pattern confirms!

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Chart of Day : Copper - $JJC

Triangle Breakout or Failure?

I've been tracking this ETF of Copper, ticker symbol JJC for quite some time. My anticipation of a w.B circle triangle formation and subsequent breakout is long overdue. 

While a breakout may have occurred on less than impressive volume, price is either retesting the upper boundary or the pattern is going to fail.  A failure would make sense here as breakouts nearer the apex of the triangle are typically weaker than one that breaks out at the 1/2 way point on heavy volume. 

Should price test and hold support at the upper boundary, the current price action from w.(E) low looks to be in threes or an ending diagonal. 

Turning your attention to Copper futures, we see that the proposed pattern and breakout  is yet to occur leading me to suggest that both the ETF and futures have more back and filling to do before a true breakout event occurs. 

At this juncture, breaks below 340.3 (Copper futures) and  43.17 (ETF) respectively would negate the triangle interpretations. 

Let's see what unfolds. 

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Keep It Simple : DJIA

Yesterday I posted this chart on Twitter and asked what do you see? I received several interpretations from readers which were correct but responses didn't touch upon the real takeaway that I had in mind. Quite possibly, additional interpretations were made by many others.

The purpose of this post, as a follow up, is to highlight some of the conclusions that can be made without an elliott wave overlay to evaluate a market.

1. The trend up
2. Price remains bound within a large channel

The initial trendline drawn from the 2009 low extending to the first intermediate trough (July 2010) had a slope of ascent that was unsustainable and resolved in August 2011 with a break of the trendline. This lead to the second intermediate correction. The second intermediate trough forced an analyst to redraw the initial trendlines (now blue lower and parallel upper return line). 

From August 2011 low, price rallied higher but has failed to:

• retest the underside of the initial trendline and 
• reach the upper boundary of the return line

That is your first significant sign that the trend is slowing!

This progression of slowing momentum is illustrated with each set of channel lines. Notice that in each advance, price failed to reach the upper return lines confirming a deceleration of trend. 

Note: You may also confirm this by using your favorite momentum indicator. 

At yesterday's close, price is testing the upper return line of the last drawn channel. This is a resistance zone and the test thereof may bring in responsive selling. We'll see. 

CONCLUSIONS

My point is, the chart shows traders and investors that the advance that began in 2009 is maturing and will continue in the direction of the prevailing trend until evidence manifests which prove otherwise. It doesn't matter what the elliott wave count is or what degree of trend.

While I assume most are still looking for entry into this market, given the mutual fund inflows. However, prudent investors might review their existing positions and contemplate the use if trailing stops, taking some profit and above all looking for reversal patterns!

I hope you found this helpful and as always....

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.