Monday, December 31, 2012

Crude Oil Update: An Inflection Point?

It's been several months since I updated my counts on crude oil. If you are not familiar with my previous analysis, please read it before proceeding.

GAME OVER?


The following series of charts attempts to explain what I'll be looking for should the crude oil market be nearing a critical inflection point that resolves to the downside. My reasoning, as you will see is that PRICE must react in a manner that is consistent with that of a third of a third wave. If it doesn't, then price shall continue to move within a well defined price range as defined in my previous work.


 

At the weekly level, I'm working a very aggressive 1-2, 1-2 count!






Dropping to the daily chart level, from w. 1 low, crude oil is working on a corrective w.2 (red). Resistance comes into play at $92.24, the .50 retracement of w.1. Once complete, a destructive 3rd of a 3rd wave is expected. Price should move aggressively lower, on high turnover and be vertical in nature. It's Game Over for Crude Oil!







Finally, at the 4 hour chart level, I've labeled the subdivisions of the recent advance (w.2). As depicted,  I'm favoring another impulsive advance that completes where w.(v) = w.(i) @ $92.47. 

With two levels of significance of $92.24 and $92.47, and if the market puts in five waves up from w. (iv) low, then expect price to react strongly down from this fib cluster. 

Note: should price not react in this manner, then the analysis is wrong

I hope you find this information helpful and 


Best of Trading




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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   
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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Monday, December 24, 2012

Coffee: Nearing An Inflection Point ?

Coffee To Rally in 2013?



It seems like an eternity but Coffee may be nearing an important inflection point that should lead to a significant counter trend rally!

I've been following the decline in coffee since May 2011 and posted my trade plan for this market.




Since that time, price has continued to grind lower.  I've listed two downside targets that represent where:  w.5= w.1 at 114.65 and w.5 = .618{w.1-w.3} at 95.05. Also not that the previous 4th, at one lesser degree, a common elliott support zone is right in this area.





Dropping to the weekly level, we can see that the minimal requirements for a completed w.5 circle has already been met i.e. price has made a new low below w.3, yet the two downside targets at the monthly level are still possible. 

Not shown, MOMO indicators exhibit bullish divergence but my suspicion is that we need to make at least another low. 

If you trade coffee it's time to watch price action closely. 2013 main bring significant gains! 


Best of Trading




======================================================================
ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   
======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Friday, December 21, 2012

GOLD: A Contrarian View

It seemed like a quaint secluded island where I and a few minority contrarians held out as the Gold Bulls crafted a masterful plan to take prices to new all time highs.

It Didn't Happen..... You Were Warned




As most of you know I've been pounding the table for lower prices before reaching new highs. As quick summary of previous posts and tweets can be found here. (See Gold comments)

Note: This blog post provides updated charts. I will follow up with a more comprehensive analysis via video at a later date.












At daily chart level, from the w.(B) crest, I believe that we are witnessing an initial impulse wave to the downside. If correct, we still need an up, down, up, down sequence as shown to complete w.(A) of the larger five wave structure that should draw price to where w.Y = w.W @ 1398.




I hope you found this information helpful and.....

Best of Trading


======================================================================
ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   
======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Proverbs and Market Timing

Have you ever noticed that I have a tenancy to make a series of market calls (blog posts, tweets) just in time for traders to decide if there is any relevance and possible application of my work to their own trading?

If Proverbs provide richness to language and to some extent, define a culture, then my hope is that my work provides readers with deductive reasoning of a market's position through technical analysis (elliottwave) and a market timing component which defines my style by the very timing of the tweet.

One might say that the following Proverbs would be applicable to my teachings and tweets.....

You can lead a Horse to the Water but you can't make him drink;

When the blind lead the blind, both shall fall into the ditch;


Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.



My posts and timely tweets are, by design, impersonal and not meant to be actionable calls to comply with   regulatory restrictions. So in effect, my work and teaching are subtle hints to lead astute readers to the water, if you are so included to drink; to the ditch but not to fall in it; and teach you to fish for a lifetime of profit and avoid loss.

So next time you read my tweets... look beyond the surface. Sometimes a turn is just over the horizon, at other times I'm building a case  based upon my work. Two recent example are: E-mini S&P and Gold

Emini's


Dec 12: " Negative Ghost Rider the weekly pattern in  is wedging! "

Dec 12: " - please post a impulsive count since 11/16 low. I'm dying to see it."

Interpretation: Even in the face of the FED meeting, I'm saying that the corrective advance may be nearing completion and traders should be on their toes.

Dec 13 9 am:  "yesterday the signs where there: OB, .786 fibo, divergence and shooting star. Look for confirmation of a tradeable top. 

Interpretation: mtn of evidence exists to support a tradeable top. Look for a 5 wave decline to develop!



Gold

I have been building my case in this market since August 2012. Most recent and timely tweets are:

Nov 7: Blog post http://bit.ly/Uk7hdL

Nov 27: Blog post http://bit.ly/U0Rjid

Dec 10: "At weekly level  continues to test LT trend line established 4/2009. Draw it for yourself; see importance and what break would mean. "

Dec 12: "if stops run below 1670 ish  positions cost basis at loss.Expect shelf of support established on 1/12 and 5/12 to be broken."

Dec 12: "RE  this view is consistent with my weekly wave counts posted on blog"

Dec 13: "yesterday's lackluster reaction from gold tells me Fed's actions may no longer move gold higher. Watch those stops. "

Dec 13: "RE  where do u think the most pain is inflicted upon market participants in ?"


Interpretation: Even though I'm long term bullish, forget about new highs anytime soon. We're headed lower first. 




I hope you found this helpful and as always...



Best of Trading



======================================================================
ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   
======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.