Coffee: Nearing a Bottom?

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Coffee: Nearing An Inflection Point ?

Coffee To Rally in 2013?

It seems like an eternity but Coffee may be nearing an important inflection point that should lead to a significant counter trend rally!

I've been following the decline in coffee since May 2011 and posted my trade plan for this market.

Since that time, price has continued to grind lower.  I've listed two downside targets that represent where:  w.5= w.1 at 114.65 and w.5 = .618{w.1-w.3} at 95.05. Also not that the previous 4th, at one lesser degree, a common elliott support zone is right in this area.

Dropping to the weekly level, we can see that the minimal requirements for a completed w.5 circle has already been met i.e. price has made a new low below w.3, yet the two downside targets at the monthly level are still possible. 

Not shown, MOMO indicators exhibit bullish divergence but my suspicion is that we need to make at least another low. 

If you trade coffee it's time to watch price action closely. 2013 main bring significant gains! 

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Coffee Update and a Review of Wave Personality

After a volatile month of July, a review of the the decline from 192.2 has not yet proven itself. One could come to the conclusion that this market remains under pressure and you would probably be correct in your assessment. To what extent?

If the pressure truly remains to the downside and 150.10 will be surrendered, price action over the next two trading days must exhibit the personality of a third wave move.

From the 240 min chart, I have labeled what type of price action represents a third wave move AND what would not constitute one. In a third wave, we should see several days of heavy selling as price extends to the downside in long bars. This would bolster my labeling and my interpretation offered in my personal trade plan.You can read more about that trade plan at :  Elliott Wave Live: Coffee Anyone?

If we don't start seeing this market extend and see what I have described as "Not This", the possibility exists that either the bottom is already in or a more complex corrective move may be unfolding.

In conclusion, the correct use of Elliott Wave balances price with wave personality (structure). So make sure that you apply the applicable rule of wave personality to your wave labeling efforts. You'll see better results!

I hope you found this education tip helpful and...

Best of Trading


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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

Coffee Anyone?

My Personal Trade Plan

I've been following the monthly chart of coffee for quite some time. Most recent price action is in three waves to complete w.4 circle. Notice the long shadow tail as the 3-wave structure completed. That's selling pressure right at the .382 retracement of w.3 (not shown). I'm now looking for a 5-wave decline into 135.15 to end the sequence.

Turning my attention to the daily chart, a doji candle, represents indecision and also hints that the advance is complete. 

The final chart of ticker symbol JO shows my target for the completion of w.5 circle at 32.50 where I will be looking to go long this market.

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 


Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 


A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.