Corn : Update

We have been following the progression of price in Corn futures. If you missed my original thoughts on this market I recommend reading them before continuing. You can find that information by clicking here.


The following series of charts are of the ETF of Corn, ticker symbol CORN instead of corn futures due to the fact that I took a position right before the futures market closed and I didn't want to carry a position overnight given that futures actively trade between 6 pm - 3 pm est., (the bulk of the session while I sleep) and  the potential for further downside risk as you can see from the following charts.


My initial work called for a w.(ii) decline after the completion of w.(i). There are two possible counts for the termination of w.(i) that give rise to two possible entry points into the market. The following chart analysis is from an actual trade in CORN. I will be sharing this trade and thoughts with readers so that they can learn how I am using elliott wave.

NOTE: THIS IS NOT A TRADE RECOMMENDATION (see risk disclosure and disclaimers) before proceeding.

The following chart is my preferred wave count where w.(ii) is unfolding in a zig-zag correction. W.c = w.a @  $48.68 and terminates in the vicinity of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. This would be a text-book trade if my analysis is correct. Notice that the .618 retracement of w.(i) lies just below at $47.53 as well as an open gap. Both may provide support if the price continues to subdivide to the downside. 

The Trade

Buy:  200 shares @ $47.62

Filled at 47.66

Slippage (.04)

Initial Target: $52.71 with much higher potential. 

Stop: $47.50 

Nothing is perfect or guaranteed in speculating in the market and this chart shows that there is another downside target that I must account for. In this alternate count, w.(ii) unfolds in an expanded flat , as w.(i) terminates at $48.6 instead of $48.68. The w. (ii) bottom isn't expected until $47.04, where w.c = 1.618 w.a. That's certainly a deep correction but it is a valid count so long as w.(ii) doesn't exceed the origin of w.(i) at $46.85.

Under this interpretation, I would place my stop at $46.75 with the full knowledge that I'm wrong in a big way if $46.85 breaks. As such, prudent risk management calls for the actual trade under the preferred count because it offers me less initial risk and if wrong my maximum exposure is $24 + commission and slippage. 

As always, I'll continue to follow this trade so readers can see how I manage the trade. 

I hope you found this post helpful and ...

Best of Trading

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I am LONG CORN but don't have any position in corn futures markets related to this article.