Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Chart of the Day: Has Crude Oil Topped ?

Things are about to get ugly.... this
Elliott Wave Pattern is flashing "SELL " ...





At the weekly chart level, w.c circle has extended just beyond where w.c = w.a at 108.975 to complete cycle  w.b. The next move should be down hard. Certainly the first bar down is cause for alarm to a bullish stance. As price has somewhat recovered, on 5/23/2011, Goldman Sachs Reverses Course, Now Says to Buy Crude Oil! This is in my opinion an attempt to place a floor under this market however, the daily chart clearly shows why they may be wrong.




At the daily chart level, the market made a five wave decline to complete w.(1) and is now working a corrective move. Upon a closer inspection of the wave structure, the corrective pattern is that of a flat where w.B retraced more than .9 w.A. The subsequent w.C rally most commonly terminates where w.C =w.A at 105.025 with the 50% retracement in agreement at 104.7




There are other upside targets. Notice that I have added the 1.236 and 1.382 RF of w.B where w.C = 106.95-108.375. This level are also in agreement with the .618 of 107.075 and represent the upper boundary for any flat interpretation. Prints above 108.375 would invalidate the corrective count.

Given the wave pattern and two levels of agreement, there is a high probability that Crude Oil will fail and make new lows.  

I hope you found this information helpful and best of trading.


3 comments:

  1. Good stuff. Very detailed. How's the IWM looking for you? It was down hard today. OR do you just chart commodities?
    Also,
    you should consider using a link shortener such as bit.ly for your tweets. You'll get great stats from clicks and get more characters in your tweets. Just a suggestion.
    @OptionAssassin Find me on twitter.

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  2. I follow a variety of World Markets, commodities and currencies. The Russell,or IWM has recovered from the 2007 Bear market to reach new highs but the most recent price action is similar to the DOW and S&P wave patterns. As most of my work focuses on the emini S&P, you can find my most recent counts contained within this site. I update my S&P analysis every M-W-F.

    Hope this helps.

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  3. Thanks. Always looking for S&P thoughts and ideas. Will definitely check them out.

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