Soybeans Lower?

I thought I would expand a bit upon a tweet I made on August 3, 2012, where I said, " Any way u cut the fish, $ZS_F going lower. Any temp. strength will be negated."

The basis for my opinion was due to the fact that the wave structure from 7/24 - 7/31 appeared to be in three waves and thus a corrective rally. If my assessment was correct then a significant decline could ensure and thus the "context" for my comment after the 8/2/2102 close. 

Note: that temporary strength was indeed negated and yesterday price turned south

From the 1656 high, the decline should unfold in a five wave decline. The pattern would be confirmed on a closing bases below 1552^2. If not, the possibility remains that we will see a complex corrective pattern developing from 1690... possibly a triangle that would eventually reach a new recovery high.

I hope you found this information helpful and...

Best of Trading 

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Before the Bell: Updated $ES_F Chart

At the 120 minute chart level, price has challenged the lower boundary of the corrective price channel. If this interpretation is correct, a decisive break will occur that draws prices to new lows.

And here is my current elliott wave count for the decline that began at 1229.75.  I'm giving this count some wiggle room as there are other ways to count this (see ALT) but I believe that the triangle w.4 red breaks up the subdivision of w.(3) well. The depth of the counter-trend rally that is currently taking place should confirm the count. If correct, I do not expect price to print above the .50 retracement level. Should price make a much deeper retracement, but not exceed 1207.5 (the invalidation point for the overall interpretation), then most likely the ALT count is correct.


Let's see what develops.



Best of Trading

Silver:Revisited

Is There Still Silver In These Hills?

The following chart is part of my initial commentary on July 28, 2011. As you can see my analysis for the termination point of the corrective rally was incorrect as price exceeded my invalidation point of 41.97.

Here is the updated chart through today's close. From the w.iv circle low of 39.13, a small five wave advance where w.v = .382 w{i-iii} at 41.92 took place and is in agreement with the 1.618 RF extension of w.B red. Also note that the bearish reversal that occurred today is also what one wants to see if a top is in... i.e. a swift retracement of w.v in less time than it took to complete.

Additional evidence of a w.(2) crest can be found by looking at the MACD technical study that shows a divergence as noted by the green lines.  This market should remain under selling pressure in the days to come.

Best of Trading

The Market Pulse

The Market continues to rally to the upside against the decline from 1343.25 - 1243.25. From 1243.25, there are several waves that overlap giving the appearance of a countertrend move.... a W-X-Y double zig-zag. For tomorrow, I'm looking for a further price advance to 1304.50 -1305 where w.c of w.y =w.a. Also note that the lower end of the gap will act as structural resistance. Should the market push through these key areas, then the next zone of resistance is where w.y = w.w at 1312.5.

Failure to penetrate 1296.50 would call into question the immediate wave interpretation and open the door for a retest of 1279 possibly lower to 1268-1270.75.

Since the jury is still out on whether the decline from 1343.25 - 1243.25 is just a correction, I'm focusing only on the current wave structure. Depending on your view of the market, one could also argue that the rally form 1243.25 is a leading diagonal. Regardless of which view is correct, the outlook for the market once the rally completes is still to the downside. The only difference is by how much.

Tomorrow will bring with it another piece of the puzzle. Let's see what develops. 

Best of Trading