The Manipulators Have Struck Again!
Over the past few days, the governing bodies of Europe have successfully talked up the markets, in particularly,.... Friday's price action was ridiculous! Yet, if readers had been watching my tweet stream, on July 24, I tweeted, " ES_F currently at 1319.5-1320.75 support . If it fails we could see a slide to 1305."
Support actually held and the market hasn't looked back. Two days later, Mario Draghi manipulated the market with his comments to support the Euro at all costs. Friday, more chatter and the market exploded (see chart). The simple fact is that the US equity market response to economic news has increased dramatically!
The above chart is the last chart that I left readers with. Read more about my initial thoughts made on July 18, 2012.
I have modified the wave labeling and included a price channel. The initial failure to achieve 1397.5 from the 7/19 high of 1376 brought initial concerns to the wave count. The subsequent decline heightened my level of concern when 1320 held (see previous comments above), to end w. (b). The advance from w.(b) low has extended beyond the corrective price channel and suggests the presence of a third wave. As such, it would be difficult to maintain an corrective stance to 1397.5 as price would clearly remain outside of the channel to meet my initial projection where w.y = w.w @ 1397.5. Therefore, I'm updating the possible scenarios that I'm paying particular attention to.
Note: These patterns below are subject to multiple interpretations which may require further development in order to conclude that any particular pattern is of higher probability than the others.
1. First, I think it's important to actually look at the CASH market. Here is a possible leading diagonal scenario that would explain the initial advance. You'll notice that there is a clear distinction between the emini contract high on 7/19 and the CASH. The price objective at 1399.48 would only be applicable IF the July 19 high of 1371.21 is w.A and where w=C of w.2 = .618 w.A. Complicating matters is the thrust from the 7/24 low.... w.C should not have an increasing slope when compared to w.A. Therefore, this scenario is suspect.
2. Under scenario 2, the leading diagonal is now labeled w.1 and subsequent price action should follow the script laid out. IMO, the test for this scenario occurs on any meaning full retracement. To maintain this wave count, critical support of 1329.24 can't be violated.
3. Finally, I'm keeping in mind that this larger quarterly pattern may be applicable and what we are seeing right now is the beginning of a five wave sequence to end w.d.
Let's see how things develop.
Best of Trading
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