Showing posts with label FCX. Show all posts

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Global Bear or Bull Market? Part I of III

The Bull-Bear Debate

With all eyes zoomed in on the European debt debacle, it may be more beneficial for investors to take a more holistic view of inter-market relationships.

At Elliottwavelive, I've always tried to educate, present long term charts (with the exception of my short term futures updates) and display wave counts so that readers can possibly unify the concept of macro investing and technical analysis.

In Part I of this three part series, we'll re-examine some of my previous analysis as well as some most recent headlines. As you will see, the charts are like chapters of a book. Each tells a story as the book of global macro investing is written. You will find countless examples of this within my blogsite.

In Part II, I'll update the charts to their current market position and present how I form a Bull - Bear thesis.

In Part III - I'll put it all together with an in-depth look at the US equity Indexes.

Part I:

Just Charts:

Lately I have seen countless companies cut guidance. In the early part of June, I made a series of posts that subtly begged readers to consider the implications of what the charts may be revealing. Here are links to a few key markets that I was watching. I would also recommend looking at additional posts and videos found in the archives section, located at the bottom right side of the blog. Please review them so that the remainder of the parts II and III will make sense.

Copper and FCX

Chinese Data Masking a Global Slowdown

You Decide the Fate of the Markets

Headlines:

Brazil Cuts Rates For 8th Time as Recovery Falters

Copper slips ahead of China GDP data, growth concerns

Australia Employment Drops Unexpectedly

China's Slowdown Spreads Pain Despite Stimulus

Asian Currencies Fall On Europe Slowdown Concern

Fiscal Cliff Starts to Hit Growth : US Economy On Death Row

Europe slowdown adds more tension to Greek drama

I shared these headlines because investors form conscious or subconscious opinions that transcend producing day to day volatility spikes. The corresponding wild price swings underlie the battle between fear and greed. Acting, in such a manner, is usually a losing proposition thus our focus will be to initially dispel the headlines news and use technical analysis as a confirming mechanism.

In closing, I leave you with a question to ponder. Will this be the worst earnings environment that we have seen since the 2007 global meltdown?

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure.

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content") provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade.

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.

Friday, June 1, 2012

Copper and FCX

Copper and FCX in a Death Spiral?

Monday was Memorial Day and I enjoyed watching all the war movies. I find it fitting to draw a comparison between a plane being shot down to the price of Copper and FCX.When a plane gets shot down, it spirals to the ground. I liken this to 3rd waves,which as you know, travel the farthest in the least amount of time. They are destructive by nature and act like airplanes heading vertically to the ground.

I've been following the progression of a very bearish wave pattern in Copper as well as Freeport McMoran (FCX). Below are the charts that show my preferred wave counts as well as the classical H&S neckline. The target implications for each are a 1.618 multiple or you can use a top to neckline measurement and project it downward from the neckline.

First order of business is a break of the neckline on a closing basis. I believe that FCX has a greater probability to confirm the pattern as it's core business also has exposure to gold.

Let's see what develops.

Best of Trading.

Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure.

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content") provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, CTA or licensed investment advisor, of which I am not, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records, the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as but not limited to; lack of liquidity, commission and slippage. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown or achieve a specific outcome. You acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions are your own sole responsibility, and any contributor associated with delivering multimedia content to you, through either www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com or http://www.youtube.com/user/ElliottWaveLive, including EWL cannot be held responsible for any losses that are incurred as a result. Trades shown on this Site or within any other media are hypothetical (they weren't executed), unless otherwise noted. They are shown for illustration purposes only. When applicable, executed trades used for illustration purposes will be fully disclosed within the body of the subject matter.

Suitability: You agree that either (i) you have sufficient knowledge and experience in business and financial matters to evaluate the merits and risks of any opinions expressed herein with respect to investments or (ii) you will obtain the advice of an investment adviser with respect thereto.

Availability Limited to United States: Although this Site may be accessible worldwide, the Content is intended solely for residents of the United States. The information and other Content provided throughout are not necessarily appropriate for use in other locations. If you are not a United States resident and you access the Content, you do so on your at their own risk, and you will be responsible for compliance with local laws, if and to the extent applicable.

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY, COMMISSION AND SLIPPAGE. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED WITHIN THIS SITE, SUPPORT AND TEXTS. OUR POST(S), SHOULD BE USED AS LEARNING AIDS ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE USED TO INVEST REAL MONEY. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.

Copyright and Intellectual Property Rights
Proprietary Information: The blog site and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content") is the proprietary information of EWL, or the party that provided the Content to EWL. Either shall retain all right, title, and interest in and to the Content. Accordingly, the Content may not be copied, distributed, republished, uploaded, posted, or transmitted in any way without the prior written consent of EWL, except that you may print out a copy of the Content solely for your personal use. In doing so, you may not remove or alter or cause to be removed or altered, any copyright, trademark, trade name, service mark, or any other proprietary notice or legend appearing on any of the Content. Neither title nor intellectual property rights are transferred to you by access to this Site. You specifically agree not to sell, resell, reproduce, duplicate, copy, transmit, disseminate, distribute, broadcast, use or commercially exploit for any purpose any Newsletter or other Content. Modifications or use of a Newsletter or the Content except as expressly provided in this Agreement violates EWL's intellectual property rights, and will result in the immediate termination of your access to this Site and any Newsletter subscription without refund or credit for any unfulfilled portion thereof.
Trademarks, service marks, and logos appearing in this Site are the property of either EWL or the party that provided the trademarks, service marks, and logos to EWL. EWL and any party that provided trademarks, service marks, and logos appearing on this Site will retain all rights with respect to any of their respective trademarks, service marks, and logos.

Indemnification: You agree to defend, indemnify and hold harmless any or all of the Author(s), EWL, their respective parent or subsidiary companies, respective affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents from and against any and all claims, actions, suits or proceedings, as well as any and all losses, liabilities, damages, costs and expenses (including reasonable attorneys fees) arising out of or accruing from (a) any material posted or otherwise provided by you that infringes any copyright, trademark, trade secret, trade dress, patent or other intellectual property right of any person or defames any person or violates their rights of publicity or privacy, (b) any misrepresentation made by you in connection with your registration, access to this Site, access to or use of the newsletter or any other Content available at this site; http://elliottwavelivw.blogspot.com or http://twitter.com/elliottwavelive (c) any non-compliance by you with the terms and conditions of this Agreement, if and as amended from time-to-time; and (d) claims brought by persons or entities other than the parties to this Agreement arising from or related to your access to this Site, or your access to and use of any Newsletter or other Content.

Disclaimer: THE NEWSLETTER, ANY OTHER CONTENT ON THIS SITE, AND THE SITE ITSELF ARE PROVIDED ON AN "AS IS" AND "AS AVAILABLE" BASIS WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND EITHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OR MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, OR THE WARRANTY OF NON-INFRINGEMENT. WITHOUT LIMITING THE FOREGOING, WE MAKE NO WARRANTY THAT (A) THE NEWSLETTER, CONTENT OR SITE WILL MEET YOUR REQUIREMENTS, (B) THE RESULTS THAT MAY BE OBTAINED FROM YOUR ACCESS TO THE SITE, THE NEWSLETTER, OR THE CONTENT WILL BE EFFECTIVE, ACCURATE, OR RELIABLE, (C) THE QUALITY OF THE NEWSLETTER OR ANY CONTENT PURCHASED OR OBTAINED BY YOU FROM THE SITE OR FROM US WILL MEET YOUR EXPECTATIONS OR BE FREE FROM MISTAKES, ERRORS, OR DEFECTS, OR (D) THAT ACCESS TO THE SITE OR ANY NEWSLETTER WILL BE TIMELY, SECURE, OR ERROR FREE OR UNINTERRUPTED AND AVAILABLE ON A CONTINUOUS BASIS. UNAVAILABILITY, ERRORS, OMISSIONS OR INACCURATE DATA MAY RESULT FROM UNRELIABLE TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES, DUE TO EQUIPMENT FAILURE, OR OTHER TECHNICAL PROBLEMS BEYOND THE OUR CONTROL, AND WE DO NOT WARRANT THE AVAILABILITY, ACCURACY OR RELIABILITY OF THE SITE OR ANY NEWSLETTER DUE TO SUCH CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL.

THIS SITE COULD INCLUDE TECHNICAL OR OTHER MISTAKES, INACCURACIES, OR TYPOGRAPHICAL ERRORS. WE MAY MAKE CHANGES TO ANY CONTENT AT THIS SITE, AT ANY TIME WITHOUT NOTICE.

THE USE OF THE SITE, OR THE DOWNLOADING OR OTHER ACQUISITION OF ANY MATERIALS THROUGH THIS SITE, IS DONE AT YOUR OWN DISCRETION AND RISK AND WITH YOUR AGREEMENT THAT YOU WILL BE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY DAMAGE OR LOSS THAT RESULTS FROM SUCH ACTIVITIES.

BY CONTINUING TO USE THIS SITE, ESTABLISHING ANY CONTACT WITH ITS AUTHORS OR EWL AND/OR CLICKING ON ANY LINK, YOU ACKNOWLEDGE HAVING READ AND UNDERSTAND ALL DISCLAIMERS AND RISK DISCLOSURES.

Limitation on Liabilities: IN NO EVENT SHALL AUTHOR, EWL, OR THEIR PARENTS, SUBSIDIARY COMPANIES, AFFILIATES, SUPPLIERS OR THEIR RESPECTIVE DIRECTORS, OFFICERS, EMPLOYEES AND AGENTS BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, PUNITIVE, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, EXEMPLARY OR OTHER DAMAGES ARISING OUT OF OR IN ANY WAY CONNECTED WITH ACCESS TO THE SITE, WITH THE NEWSLETTER OR ANY INFORMATION, SOFTWARE, PRODUCTS AND SERVICES ADVERTISED IN OR OBTAINED THROUGH THE SITE OR NEWSLETTER, OR OTHERWISE ARISING OUT OF THE USE OF THE SITE OR THE NEWSLETTER, WHETHER BASED ON CONTRACT, TORT, NEGLIGENCE, STRICT LIABILITY OR OTHERWISE, EVEN IF THE AUTHOR, EWL, THEIR PARENTS, SUBSIDIARY COMPANIES, AFFILIATES, SUPPLIERS AND/OR THEIR RESPECTIVE DIRECTORS, OFFICERS, EMPLOYEES AND AGENTS HAVE BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGES. THIS WAIVER APPLIES, WITHOUT LIMITATION, TO ANY DAMAGES OR INJURY ARISING FROM ANY FAILURE OF PERFORMANCE, ERROR, OMISSION, INTERRUPTION, DELETION, DEFECT, DELAY IN OPERATION OR TRANSMISSION, COMPUTER VIRUS, FILE CORRUPTION, COMMUNICATION-LINE FAILURE, NETWORK OR SYSTEM OUTAGE, OR THEFT, DESTRUCTION, UNAUTHORIZED ACCESS TO, ALTERATION OF, OR USE OF ANY RECORD.

Governing Law: This Agreement shall be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of the State of Florida in the United States without giving effect to any principles of conflicts of law. You hereby agree that any disputes arising under or in connection with this Agreement and/or the Service shall be submitted for resolution to federal and state courts in Seminole County in the State of Florida, and you hereby waive any jurisdictional, venue, or inconvenient forum objections to such courts.

Miscellaneous: Any cause of action relating to or arising from this agreement, this Site, any Newsletter, or any Content, or your access thereto, must be instituted within one year after the cause of action arises or be deemed forever waived and barred.

In addition to any excuse provided by applicable law, we will be excused from liability for non-delivery or delay in delivery of access to this Site, the newsletters or any other Content available through this Site arising from any event beyond our reasonable control, whether or not foreseeable, including but not limited to, labor disturbance, war, fire, accident, adverse weather, inability to secure transportation, governmental act or regulation, and other causes or events beyond our reasonable control, whether or not similar to those enumerated above.

If any part of this Agreement is held invalid or unenforceable, that portion will be construed in a manner consistent with applicable law to reflect, as nearly as possible, the original intentions of the parties, and the remaining portions will remain in full force and effect.

Any failure by us to enforce or exercise any provision of this agreement or any related rights will not constitute a waiver of that right or provision.

Elliott Wave Live