Nike's Net Profit Jumps 22% but Chinese Outlook is Soft

Nike's net profit jumps 22% but Chinese outlook is soft. Nike's (NKE) FQ4 earnings beat expectations as net profit soared 22% to $668M, adjusted EPS came in at $0.76 and revenues climbed 7% to $6.7B. North American sales rose 12%, and revenues grew in emerging markets, although they fell in Japan and Western Europe, and were flat in greater China. Nike's shares were -0.9% premarket after the company said that it expects Chinese revenue to fall in fiscal H1 2014 and that it's hard to predict how quickly sustained growth will return to the region.

For those who may be interested...  here is the link to the full text and webcast results...

http://nikeinc.com/news/nike-inc-reports-fy2013-q4-and-full-year-results

You might ask, why I'm interested in Nike? Well, as a matter of fact.... China!

I take great interest in the developments in Asia and I'm always watchful of signals that confirm my research.

I recently wrote a special report on China, entitled, "The Asian Contagion, 13 Masks of a Developing Slowdown".

If you haven't had an opportunity to read it or find yourself needing more information about China and it's influence, you can bring yourself  up to speed with the details presented in the report.


Best of Trading

Mike Sinibaldi

P.S. My website is open to everyone right now. Take full advantage of it and read this free report before July 1st. After that, I have to take it down in fairness to my subscribers!

An Overwhelming Response

Yesterday I gave my followers a private invitation and an opportunity to get first dibs at my new website. The response has been overwhelming!

While I have tested the Site at length, there are bound to be some unanticipated issues and glitches that need to be ironed out. Should they occur, I apologize and appreciate your understanding and patience.

Today is the day that I officially open up the site to the general public.  If you haven't already bookmarked the site - the URL is: http://mikesinibaldi.com/

I will not be restricting access to my articles, reports and insights until July 1st. That gives everyone plenty of time to kick the tires around. Thereafter, you MUST at the very least, become a FREE SUBSCRIBER, to gain access to most of my articles and insights. You can learn more about my services at: http://mikesinibaldi.com/services/

NOTICE: For those who have already taken me up on the opportunity, over the weekend, I'll be publishing the first official video edition of the Sinibaldi Wave Advisor Newsletter and I'll publish the next issue of the Sinibaldi Report on July 7th.

With regards to this blog, it's not going away but I will be quickly transitioning over to my new site. My intent is to use it exclusively for its intended purpose.

Have a great weekend everyone. I hope you are enjoying the new site. I look forward to your feedback and comments.

Mike Sinibaldi
Sinibaldi Analytcis

Something Brand New From Mike Sinibaldi...

NEW, From Mike Sinibaldi

Inside the Site something brand NEW

and an Opportunity that may SHOCK YOU. 

Your response is needed by July 1st

or you'll miss out!

I'm extremely excited to announce that I've just released my new website to my supporters. It took me along time to compile all of the research that went into making this possible, but it's finally DONE.

I've named the company, Sinibaldi Analytics. The company is a study of market action; therefore, the website is designed to be extremely visual. Although some basic technical analysis would be helpful, you don't have to be an elliott wave or technical expert to understand my work. The site, offers you access to a wealth of educational content that is meant to provide you with the necessary framework for the further development of your investment or trading strategies; anticipate trend changes and spot opportunities. Think of us as a portal to everything that makes us your Elliott Wave Authority.

Before I give you the URL...

I promised, as part of my Special Beta Launch, a private invitation to a special opportunity. Here's what you need to know about the opportunity that I'm only making available to my followers.

NOW, I must first forewarn you...

This Will Be The ONLY Invitation You Will See

For This 'One-Time Only' Opportunity

The opportunity expires on July 1st or

when 296 followers take me up on the opportunity! 

Given the feedback that I have received and that 1800 + people follow me on Twitter alone, I can't tell you how long this will last. So if you have an interest in taking advantage of the opportunity, I urge you to go to Your Private Invitation and Opportunity and study your opportunity- IMMEDIATELY.

I hope you’ll enjoy learning more about Sinibaldi Analytics.



Best,

Mike Sinibaldi


PS: This opportunity can never be repeated as I can only launch a business once.

P.S.S:  I'm still working behind the scenes during the BETA Launch to increase the speed at which some pages load on the Site. Thanks for your understanding!

It's Finally Here... The Beta Launch Date

My Website Is About to Go Live

 and Your Private Invitation

Will Arrive Tomorrow!

Friends,

Mike Sinibaldi here with two updates that I promised I would make today.

The Beta Launch date of my new Site will be on this Friday, June 28th! I'll publish the URL at 9:00 am est but as part of my Special Launch Celebration, I'll be sending out your private invitation on June 27th, so you'll have access to the Site a day in advance. Remember, this is only for the people who have supported and followed me. So please, keep the link and the opportunity to yourself.

Until tomorrow...

Best of Trading

More Pre-Launch News!

Dear Friends,

I have some more news to share with you today.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, June 26th, I'm going to privately announce the Beta Launch date of my new Site AND it's only fair that those who followed me and supported me get the first crack at kicking the tires around before the general public. It's also two years of research, planning and effort coming to fruition, to build a real community of  like minded elliott wave traders and investors...  AND for those who might want to be... in it's modern form and certainly I'm spear-heading that effort.

I know many of you have been waiting for this day and I thank you for your patience! I can't tell you the rest of the details right now. You know its coming for sure and really soon.

In the meantime, I'll leave you with this nugget. I have a special opportunity for you. More about that in the days to come.  

I do have some final tweaking to do on the Site and time permitting, I'll have at least two new articles waiting for you.

Until then,

Mike Sinibaldi

P.S. Be watching for my next update on Wednesday, June 26th, including an explanation on that something opportunity.

A Special Announcement on My New Website

Finally! My Efforts to Provide You

with a More Comprehensive Service Draws Nearer... 

Hello Everyone,

As most of you know, I've been diligently working on my new website and at the same time working towards obtaining my Certified Market Technician designation with the Market Technicians Association. That hasn't left much time for trading!

The Beta launch of the Site will take place in the next 1-3 weeks. Details on the exact date will be posted to this Blog-site and to Twitter as soon as they become available. So make sure that you check this Site often if you currently don't follow me on Twitter!

I know volatility has picked up and many of you might be asking yourself could 2008 happen again. But, I'm a bit ahead of myself here...

I've written several new articles designed to give you information on all sorts of topics, including:

* The 13 “Masks” of China’s Consumer Revolution and the threats you must be prepared for in 2013!

* The Japanese Bond Market: Correction or Looming Crisis!

* Coffee Essentials!


Those are just a few...

Whether you're just getting started or a seasoned investor or speculator, the Site has the resources to help you along the way! For those interested, I've made certain that the Site is interactive so you can learn faster, do what you do easier and provide the necessary framework for the further development of your investment or trading strategies; anticipate trend changes and spot opportunities. 

Best of Trading,

Mike Sinibaldi

P.S. Don't forget to watch out for more pre-launch announcements. 

Upside Resistance Levels I'm watching With Partial Wave Count

Appears to be a stop running exercise at 1673.5 with a possible reversal.

Today's close was horrendous. There were numerous (MOC) - Market on Close-  where as near as possible to the close of a trading day a market order is executed. 

Given the negative tape at the close, Monday should be interesting as nobody goes home with a future position without justification.

Friday's humor - About 3:52 pm EST,  I tweeted, "I know that its 51 handles away but a print below 1586 could bring bears out of hibernation."

I guess they heard me and decided that could be a good idea.

Let's see if further weakness prevails.

Have a great weekend.

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Retest of Breakout Could Mean Sell In May

Yesterday I mentioned on Twitter that a retest of the breakout day had possibly occurred which incidentally  coincided with Bernanke's Congressional testimony. Here's the chart for your review. 

While not show, the level corresponds to .786 retracement and the concept of what was once support, once broken reverses and acts as resistance. 

An initial five waves down from 1562.75, would bolster the probability that a larger price decline could occur... 

Is 'Sell in May and Go Away' finally here?

We'll see. 

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Matching a Waves Personality with Your Count

It's so important to match the personality of a price pattern with your count. When they diverge, something may be wrong in your assessment.

Earlier today I posted this chart of the e-mini S&P 500 where I showed two high probability scenarios that might be unfolding based upon my evaluation of most recent price action.

So far so go in that assessment! However, the personality of the waves must match your evaluation of market structure.

"It's almost like a Doctor seeing a patient. You describe the symptoms. 

They must match the diagnosis! This is called a differential diagnosis"

In the same way, when evaluating a price chart in real- time if the wave personality doesn't match price action, it's often your first sign of trouble and an opportunity to reassess, take protective action against loss, or use progressive stops to lock in gains.

I hope you found this quick tip helpful and ...

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Remember This Chart of DJIA?

I offered this chart back on February 8, 2013 that showed the potential for a slowing trend. You can read the previous article by clicking on the link. 

Fast forward, while price progression has failed to reach the higher blue return line, price has managed to reach the upper return  line of the intermediate trend that began on October 2011. 

One should have expected resistance upon a test of the upper boundary.  The fact that price respected the line proves it's significance. Should an upside break occur at this junction, that could signal an acceleration of trend or if price fails to hold above the upper channel line it may signal exhaustion. 

Let's see what develops. 

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Emini S&P 500

How yesterday may have unfolded.

The Bernanke testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress had traders on the edge of their seats. At the time, I tweeted, "Spirited trading today" and the bulls were pushing the market higher. Possibly they drank from the punch bowl that Bernanke had spiked so many times before and it tasted different. 

Approximately an hour later, the breakout was in jeopardy. When the 240 minute bar closed, the message was clear. The breakout failed. Fittingly, Martin Pring describes this intraday pattern as a Pinocchio Bar.

Initially, several Fibonacci relationships lead me to believe that an argument could be made that a five wave sequence ended at what is now labeled as w.iii circle. However, given the loss of 1646.5 in the overnight session and subsequent price action I offer this count. Confidence remains against the figure 1632.75. 

Price has already advanced off the lows in what appears to be a corrective move.  That's what we would expect if a a w.2 or w.b was unfolding. 

While the sea may be full of red at the moment, it is in my opinion that a correction of the prior day's decline may be in order. 

Let's see what develops.

Best of Trading 

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Japanese 10-yr Bond

ANNOUNCEMENTS: I'm about a month away from a beta launch of my new website and I'm busy adding content. Yesterday, I wrote an article for my new website yesterday on Japanese bonds. Given the overnight moves in both the Nikkei 225 and the Japanese 10-yr Bond, I wanted to at least extend the charts to my readers. While I won't be adding my opinion and insight herein, I'll leave you with a hint. Is the pattern enclosed in the rectangle the beginning of a crisis or an unfinished corrective pattern?

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Does $USD - JPY Have Room To Run?

$USD-JPY  has progressed nicely and looks to have completed w.(3) of an ongoing advance that should unfold in five waves. Currently, w.(3) =2.618 w.(1). Should my assessment of this currency pair and preferred wave interpretation be proven correct then a fourth wave should be underway. Prints above 99.947 would negate my bias and be subject to re-evaluation of subsequent price action. 

According to the guidelines of elliott wave theory, 2nd and 4th waves typically alternate and are usually Fibonacci relationships to each other in both time and length. Since w.(2) unfolded in zig-zag, I'm looking for w.(4) to unfold in a time consuming sideways to down affair whose extent would target the most common Fibonacci relationship of w.(4) = .382 w.(3) or 91.04. Thereafter, a final impulsive rally should unfold in five waves to complete w.1 circle.

With regards to time, w.(2) took six months. Accordingly, w.(4) should be a Fibonacci multiple of w.(2) or put another way, w.(2) is a Fibonacci multiple of w.(4).  

Let's leave it there for now and see what develops.

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Using Intraday Charts to Plot a Course for Gold

On April 16 I tweeted, " IMO, Gold 60 min chart looks like a B wave from HOD implying another move up may be in store. Prints above 1393.8 bolster my ST conviction."

When I mentioned this in real time what I was doing at the time was building my larger degree wave counts. As you will see, the Elliott Wave Principle allows me to set expectation for further price development. Let's take a look at the process.

As you know, corrective patterns burn time and tend to have overlapping waves. If the advance off the lows is to be labeled as a corrective advance, subsequent price action needs to meet the rules and guidelines of elliott wave but also the characteristics of wave personality should be met.

The B wave, as it turns out is an interesting development due to the fact that:

1. The pullback associated with w.b of w. (b) retraced .786 of w.a and unfolded in a 3-3-5 pattern ... a dead giveaway, according to the rules and guidelines of a flat correction. If this was true then prices would fall in five waves from the w.b crest to complete w.c of the larger degree w.(b) and prints below the origin of w.a would invalidate my interpretation.

2. You'll notice that w.(b) was also a deep correction suggesting that the larger advance that began from 1321.5 would also unfold as a larger flat. If so, counting a five wave advance from w.(b) low would complete the pattern and set the stage for either of three events:

• a full retracement to new lows
• a more complex correction would develop
• prices would continue to advance proving my analysis wrong

Moving forward these are my expectations of what I am looking for. Should the market move in a manner contrary to my analysis then odds are that I am wrong.

I've placed reverse Fibonacci extensions on the chart which reflect levels that are of interest to me. While not labeled, price has already reached a point where w.(c) = w.(a) ... the most common relationship. Thus, the limits to hold onto this interpretation would lie below 1447.8.

I hope you found this lesson helpful. Let's leave it there for now. We'll pick up this lesson over the next few days to see how things turned out.


Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

A VIX Fortune Teller?

Fortune-telling is the practice of predicting information about a person's life. Could it also be applied to your trading account? 

The date was November 8, 2012 when I spotted a potential mirror pattern in the VIX. I've been monitoring it ever since and thought that it might be appropriate to update the chart. If you missed the original commentary, read it here at: http://bit.ly/S0ausx

Fast forward, volatility remains low. However should the March low of 11.05 prevail in what appears to be a mirror image of the previous saucer (rounding bottom) pattern ... volatility should pick up. The question to ponder is whether the tea leaves forecast a low in 2015 for the broader market or is this pattern a fraud.

I guess we'll have some time on our hands before we make that distinction!


Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

EURO STOXX 50 Index: A Layman's Study of Bailouts and QE

Sometimes we need few words to describe something. As in this case, the chart identifies that the EU may need to re-think their strategy.

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

ES Daily and 4 Hr Chart

Earlier today I tweeted two key levels of support that I am watching... 1537.25 and 1533.25. On the 4 hr chart,  notice the support level created by the .618 extension lies just below the level where the market found support during Monday's sell-off. Just below that, the .618 retracement has been tested and provided support ( 2 ellipse indicating tests ).

At the daily chart level, 1533.25 lies 2 points below the .618 retracement. From a technical perspective, if a significant breach occurs (on a closing basis), that break would create a lower low and IMO needs to be respected. In addition, the break of the Trendline and the subsequent pullback that tested the underside (now resistance)  bodes well for the bearish case. 

Before attempting to publish a preferred wave count, it's important to note that I'm not trying to call a top here. I believe the current bull cycle is over extended through the FED's policy. Therefore, so long as extraordinary monetary policy prevails and absent any clear signal of a trend reversal I will not be arrogant and attempt to call a top. As many others have found out .... doing so have been futile, time and time again! 

However, I am personally very focused on identifying any key reversal patterns that develop. When the evidence is overwhelming that the advance from 2009 had ended, which also includes a clear five wave impulsive decline, only then will I label the final subdivisions. 

Until then, let's continue to put the pieces together... one wave at a time. 

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.