$USD-JPY has progressed nicely and looks to have completed w.(3) of an ongoing advance that should unfold in five waves. Currently, w.(3) =2.618 w.(1). Should my assessment of this currency pair and preferred wave interpretation be proven correct then a fourth wave should be underway. Prints above 99.947 would negate my bias and be subject to re-evaluation of subsequent price action.
According to the guidelines of elliott wave theory, 2nd and 4th waves typically alternate and are usually Fibonacci relationships to each other in both time and length. Since w.(2) unfolded in zig-zag, I'm looking for w.(4) to unfold in a time consuming sideways to down affair whose extent would target the most common Fibonacci relationship of w.(4) = .382 w.(3) or 91.04. Thereafter, a final impulsive rally should unfold in five waves to complete w.1 circle.
With regards to time, w.(2) took six months. Accordingly, w.(4) should be a Fibonacci multiple of w.(2) or put another way, w.(2) is a Fibonacci multiple of w.(4).
Let's leave it there for now and see what develops.
Best of Trading
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Given the current personality of price movement, caution is warranted and the count is subject to re-evaluation.
ReplyDeleteIt appears that the time consuming corrective structure that I spoke about is unfolding. However, the failure of price to move significantly to the downside could also be interpreted as a smaller degree triangular pattern which should be respected. The implications may suggest that the w.(3) crest has not been struck and another recovery high would be made before a loss of 95.8
Should price push below 95.8 before making a new high, then the preferred interpretation is maintained.
Best of Trading