Chart Challenge: China Mobile

Test Your Knowledge

China Mobile Ltd. (NYSE: CHL, SEHK: 0941) is China's dominant mobile service provider. 

Part I: Label the chart 

Part II: Would you Buy, Sell or Hold this security based upon the Elliott Wave Pattern?   

HINT: What other chart should you reference before attempting to place wave labels on this chart?

I'll give readers about a week before I reply with my interpretation. 

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.     

A Possible Explanation for Commodities Sell off

I wanted to make a quick intra-day post for readers who might be scratching their head regarding the sell off in commodities. 

I've been tracking this wave count at the monthly chart level and as of Friday's close, the index closed right at resistance. I have not had an opportunity to label the subdivisions of the rise from w.1 circle low but given the across the board decline in commodities a closer look is warranted. 

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.     

Crude Oil Update

The last time I spoke about this market I was pondering a directional trade in this market and left readers with the following chart. 

Bearish Count : 1-2, 1-2

As the count implies, crude oil is setting up for a large decline that fits into the deflationary theme. 

Bullish Count : 

As in the bearish scenario above (weekly chart level) cited near term resistance may end w.(D)

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.     

Coffee: Update

At the monthly chart level price there are several ways to interpret this chart. As shown, price must not exceed 192.2 if downside pressure is to be maintained within this market.  

There are two alternatives, not shown, both of which have w.4 circle still in progress as either:

(1) a contracting triangle where 192.2 will not be exceeded. 

(2) a flat correction that will exceed the current w.4 circle but not breach w.1 circle low of 212.35

We should have a better idea during the upcoming week of trading. 

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

======================================================================
Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.    

Don't Get Fooled: USD

For all the market pundits who maintain a bullish count and those who think the USD is doomed.... this quarterly chart is my gift for everyone to ponder and draw your own conclusions. 

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

======================================================================
Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.   

Chart Challenge: BlackRock

At the weekly chart level BlackRock, ticker symbol BLK looks to have completed a correction of the prior swing down.  

If the correction is a simple A-B-C, then to what level will the market fall to?

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

======================================================================
Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.  

Shanghai Composite Update

The Shanghai Composite has finally reached my levels of interest and I'm looking for confirmation that a bottom is in place. Since there are two scenarios at the monthly chart level, I am hesitant to move w.v circle of w.5 of w.C of w.(B), underneath the most recent low. An impulsive advance from current levels would bolster the possibility that w.(B) of the large flat correction had completed.


You can read more about this market that can be found at: http://bit.ly/MOYuGI


Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

======================================================================
Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.  

Euro Update

 On July 31, 2012 I made this real time video of the Euro.

Fast forward and this market has now reached a 1.618 multiple of w.a circle and near the previous w.(iv). This level and the market's position is interesting due to the fact that the ECB just promised investors the world but the wave pattern appears to be corrective in nature suggesting that bond purchases, while providing short term morphine during yesterday's session, will not provide any long term price stability.


Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

======================================================================
Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

ES Update: How I'm playing it!

Technicals Point To Another High 

At the weekly chart level (not shown) my technical indicators point to another recovery high. As such, I'm looking for a way to marry the short term 60 minute chart pattern with the larger degree trend. 

The initial decline was easy to identify as a three wave corrective zig-zag pattern. 

Note: I have highlighted the current price action from the termination point of the zig-zag. We will be evaluating that region.

Building The Trade Plan 

According to the Elliott Wave Principle, corrective patterns that begin in three, have the following corrective patterns associated with them:

1. 3-3-5 Flat - Under this pattern the second part of the pattern will be another three wave structure. The possibilities are another zig-zag, a flat or a triangle. 

Right of the bat, I see the market is sideways and any sharp (zig-zag) can be eliminated. Secondly, a flat would retrace most of the initial decline... which it doesn't. 

That leaves us with a triangle in the w.b position!

The following chart illustrated the triangle interpretation. Under this scenario, I'm looking for the market reaction to the jobs report and ECB to be muted. As enthusiasm wanes, the market will drift lower in w.(d).

2. 3-3-3-3-3 Triangle - You will find that this pattern is very similar in nature with respect to the middle part of the pattern but the resolution is to the upside. 

Each scenario promises more sideways price action, therefore that's my clue that my interpretations are correct. 

Solving the Directional Issue

Since there is no way to be certain of the direction of the thrust that accompanies these (2) triangular patterns, I am taking a conservative approach and playing the breakout once the respective (d) waves are exceeded.  

Let's see what develops

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

======================================================================
Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Why FED Will Not Disappoint

 "The Boys Club of Wall Street Cronies"

Already Know The Outcome. We Don't! 

The general market has been range bound leading up to the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. For weeks I've been looking for clues as to whether or not the central bank will use the address to pave the way for another round of monetary stimulus via quantitative easing or asset purchases.

Yesterday I gave my opinion on Gold  . Charts of silver are similar in nature. My trading plan requires another up sequence to complete what I believe is a corrective pattern. If that statement implies that recent price appreciation has built in a positive FED announcement and a sell the news event occurs, then so be it. 

Regardless of what the FED states, does or doesn't do, the charts tell me that each market should rally into my target zones and then fail. As such, I don't believe that the FED statement will take further easing off the table but the won't commit to it either therefore aligning the wave pattern top with the news event. 

I'll be monitoring gold and silver for further evidence that a fourth wave is completing. Should gold and silver trade above 1677.5 and 31.10 respectively before the market closes, it most certainly will make tomorrow even more interesting. 

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

======================================================================
Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or  securities related to this article. 

FED Hope of Easing Sparks False Rally in Gold

Just about a month ago I provided my personal assessment of gold. Elliott Wave Live: Is There Gold Still In Those Hills?

The above chart is the interpretation along with recent price action. As I stated within the previous post, "Prints above 1642.4 negate the interpretation."

A False Rally?

While my interpretation was proven incorrect, the concept of a triangular formation was not. Here's why...

At the daily chart level, I have adjusted my wave count. Readers should be able to identify the sideways movement within the chart. If you are following the rules and guidelines set forth by the Elliott Wave Principle, there is no way to label this pattern as impulsive.   Therefore, IMO, the best wave interpretation to date is an A-B-C correction with a triangle w.b circle that needs to prove itself to me by not exceeding 1707.8.


Further Evidence

Both the CBOE Gold Index and Gold Miners charts above have a shaded region that at the time of this post also exhibit possible corrective flat patterns. That would imply another move up above the June 2012 peaks. 

In conclusion, I'm not buying into this move regardless of what the FED does. I'm a possible buyer at lower levels as the larger degree pattern requires further downside as shown here. 

I hope you found this article helpful.

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

======================================================================
Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or  securities related to this article.