Let's quickly recap the call and what transpired before moving on to the S&P.
Above is the chart that I left readers with looking for a decline to 2252.50. Prices decline to 2254.25 and then rallied to new highs. The new high fulfilled the minimal requirements for w.(v). The fact that price has broken back below the w.(iii) crest could be problematic for achieving any further upside, especially as the DOW and S&P do not confirm such behavior, yet....
.... at this juncture we can't rule out the possibility based upon this chart. I"m not going to rehash the material and the case for further upside (See Heard on the Street for more detail). Breaks below 2254.25 would most likely indicate that w.(v) of w.2 red had completed.
S&P
A Triangle
Today's price action didn't bring any clarity to the picture. Several interpretations remain, the top two being that w.5 is underway or a w.4 triangle is still unfolding. The above chart shows the triangle interpretation. Notice that I've identified the wave structures in 3 waves where w.(c) of w.d circle = w.(a) at 1170.25. This is my minimal target expectation with further downside to 1148 where these first three legs would represent a larger a-b-c consistent with the 240 min time frame (see below).
A Fifth Wave Move
The move from the w.ii crest can also be counted as a perfect impulsive wave. I haven't labeled the internal subdivisions but w.iii = 1.618 w.i and w.5 = .618 w. {i-iii} if you do your homework.
Regardless of which interpretation is correct, both views continue to look down, consistent with yesterdays call. At the time of this post, the market is down 8.25, a good sign. The next move down will determine which count is right.
If the w.5 count is correct, then the ON session and tomorrow's trade will be relentlessly down on fast turnover. If it isn't, then odds are that the triangle count is more likely.
The key takeaway from each interpretation is that eventually, price should carry below 1097.
Let's see what happens.
Best of Trading
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