Last night I left readers with this chart and I'd like to expand upon the subdivisions of w.(v) which at the time didn't count well. Well I slept on it and with a fresh pair of eyes, I decided to look at additional chart levels to gain more confidence in the fact that w.iv circle had ended.
Here's my findings:
At the 360 min. chart level the wave pattern from 1193.5 looked like an ending diagonal which as you know is a terminal pattern. Also note the selling pressure that came in right at my 1227-28 target as shown by the long upper tail of the candle. This bodes well for the previous conclusion that w.iv circle had ended. Yet I wanted to dig deeper... looking at tick charts to get a birds eye view of the subdivisions.
From w.(iv) low, I can count a series of 3's for each subdivision of waves {i-v}
of w.(v). Subsequent price actions counts well, working w.(iii) but I'd like to see another down sequence to complete w.1 of w.(iii) for the count to remain on track. Of course the market doesn't care what I'd like but it would be great if it would oblige me!
Ultimately 1193.5 needs to be broken for the bears to really get excited.
Let's watch the open.
Best of Trading
Regarding the 7200 tick chart, my wave labeling would not be considered a text book ending diagonal as w.iv didn't overlap w.i and w.iv is too shallow of a retracement of w.iii. The 360 min chart level interpretation is the best fit to explain the subdivisions from 1193.5.
ReplyDeleteSubsequent post pattern price action after ISM is alarming and threatens overall count from 1229.75
While it is possible to assign impulsive counts to the movement down from the 1230 high, it seems much more corrective... wxy of (iv)
ReplyDeleteespecially with 1207 providing so much resistance, (the same area of the previous 4th of lesser degree) thus we would still need a w. (v) to complete c.
Annonoymous - Thanks for the comment. I would appreciate it if you sign your name under the post so that I can respond to you personally rather than just make a general comment. This helps you and other readers find responses more quickly.
ReplyDeleteYour comment is vaild and it would be my alternate count with 1229.75 as w.(iii). This is why I'm looking for price action to confirm the count. Price has now pushed below key 1192-93 support zone, adding to the bearish case BUT the bullish count can't be eliminated until price prints below 1178.75( w.(i)).
I'm in no hurry here to be a hero. Should I decide to go short in my own account, it will be after 5 down and a 3 wave counter-trend rally against 29.75. That's just fine with me.
If the alternate count prevails, then there's no harm done as price will not confirm my expectations and no action will be taken.
Let's see which count plays out.
Thanks again.