Upside Resistance Levels I'm watching With Partial Wave Count

Appears to be a stop running exercise at 1673.5 with a possible reversal.

Today's close was horrendous. There were numerous (MOC) - Market on Close-  where as near as possible to the close of a trading day a market order is executed. 

Given the negative tape at the close, Monday should be interesting as nobody goes home with a future position without justification.

Friday's humor - About 3:52 pm EST,  I tweeted, "I know that its 51 handles away but a print below 1586 could bring bears out of hibernation."

I guess they heard me and decided that could be a good idea.

Let's see if further weakness prevails.

Have a great weekend.

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Retest of Breakout Could Mean Sell In May

Yesterday I mentioned on Twitter that a retest of the breakout day had possibly occurred which incidentally  coincided with Bernanke's Congressional testimony. Here's the chart for your review. 

While not show, the level corresponds to .786 retracement and the concept of what was once support, once broken reverses and acts as resistance. 

An initial five waves down from 1562.75, would bolster the probability that a larger price decline could occur... 

Is 'Sell in May and Go Away' finally here?

We'll see. 

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Matching a Waves Personality with Your Count

It's so important to match the personality of a price pattern with your count. When they diverge, something may be wrong in your assessment.

Earlier today I posted this chart of the e-mini S&P 500 where I showed two high probability scenarios that might be unfolding based upon my evaluation of most recent price action.

So far so go in that assessment! However, the personality of the waves must match your evaluation of market structure.

"It's almost like a Doctor seeing a patient. You describe the symptoms. 

They must match the diagnosis! This is called a differential diagnosis"

In the same way, when evaluating a price chart in real- time if the wave personality doesn't match price action, it's often your first sign of trouble and an opportunity to reassess, take protective action against loss, or use progressive stops to lock in gains.

I hope you found this quick tip helpful and ...

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Remember This Chart of DJIA?

I offered this chart back on February 8, 2013 that showed the potential for a slowing trend. You can read the previous article by clicking on the link. 

Fast forward, while price progression has failed to reach the higher blue return line, price has managed to reach the upper return  line of the intermediate trend that began on October 2011. 

One should have expected resistance upon a test of the upper boundary.  The fact that price respected the line proves it's significance. Should an upside break occur at this junction, that could signal an acceleration of trend or if price fails to hold above the upper channel line it may signal exhaustion. 

Let's see what develops. 

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Emini S&P 500

How yesterday may have unfolded.

The Bernanke testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress had traders on the edge of their seats. At the time, I tweeted, "Spirited trading today" and the bulls were pushing the market higher. Possibly they drank from the punch bowl that Bernanke had spiked so many times before and it tasted different. 

Approximately an hour later, the breakout was in jeopardy. When the 240 minute bar closed, the message was clear. The breakout failed. Fittingly, Martin Pring describes this intraday pattern as a Pinocchio Bar.

Initially, several Fibonacci relationships lead me to believe that an argument could be made that a five wave sequence ended at what is now labeled as w.iii circle. However, given the loss of 1646.5 in the overnight session and subsequent price action I offer this count. Confidence remains against the figure 1632.75. 

Price has already advanced off the lows in what appears to be a corrective move.  That's what we would expect if a a w.2 or w.b was unfolding. 

While the sea may be full of red at the moment, it is in my opinion that a correction of the prior day's decline may be in order. 

Let's see what develops.

Best of Trading 

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Japanese 10-yr Bond

ANNOUNCEMENTS: I'm about a month away from a beta launch of my new website and I'm busy adding content. Yesterday, I wrote an article for my new website yesterday on Japanese bonds. Given the overnight moves in both the Nikkei 225 and the Japanese 10-yr Bond, I wanted to at least extend the charts to my readers. While I won't be adding my opinion and insight herein, I'll leave you with a hint. Is the pattern enclosed in the rectangle the beginning of a crisis or an unfinished corrective pattern?

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Does $USD - JPY Have Room To Run?

$USD-JPY  has progressed nicely and looks to have completed w.(3) of an ongoing advance that should unfold in five waves. Currently, w.(3) =2.618 w.(1). Should my assessment of this currency pair and preferred wave interpretation be proven correct then a fourth wave should be underway. Prints above 99.947 would negate my bias and be subject to re-evaluation of subsequent price action. 

According to the guidelines of elliott wave theory, 2nd and 4th waves typically alternate and are usually Fibonacci relationships to each other in both time and length. Since w.(2) unfolded in zig-zag, I'm looking for w.(4) to unfold in a time consuming sideways to down affair whose extent would target the most common Fibonacci relationship of w.(4) = .382 w.(3) or 91.04. Thereafter, a final impulsive rally should unfold in five waves to complete w.1 circle.

With regards to time, w.(2) took six months. Accordingly, w.(4) should be a Fibonacci multiple of w.(2) or put another way, w.(2) is a Fibonacci multiple of w.(4).  

Let's leave it there for now and see what develops.

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.