Using Intraday Charts to Plot a Course for Gold

On April 16 I tweeted, " IMO, Gold 60 min chart looks like a B wave from HOD implying another move up may be in store. Prints above 1393.8 bolster my ST conviction."

When I mentioned this in real time what I was doing at the time was building my larger degree wave counts. As you will see, the Elliott Wave Principle allows me to set expectation for further price development. Let's take a look at the process.

As you know, corrective patterns burn time and tend to have overlapping waves. If the advance off the lows is to be labeled as a corrective advance, subsequent price action needs to meet the rules and guidelines of elliott wave but also the characteristics of wave personality should be met.

The B wave, as it turns out is an interesting development due to the fact that:

1. The pullback associated with w.b of w. (b) retraced .786 of w.a and unfolded in a 3-3-5 pattern ... a dead giveaway, according to the rules and guidelines of a flat correction. If this was true then prices would fall in five waves from the w.b crest to complete w.c of the larger degree w.(b) and prints below the origin of w.a would invalidate my interpretation.

2. You'll notice that w.(b) was also a deep correction suggesting that the larger advance that began from 1321.5 would also unfold as a larger flat. If so, counting a five wave advance from w.(b) low would complete the pattern and set the stage for either of three events:

• a full retracement to new lows
• a more complex correction would develop
• prices would continue to advance proving my analysis wrong

Moving forward these are my expectations of what I am looking for. Should the market move in a manner contrary to my analysis then odds are that I am wrong.

I've placed reverse Fibonacci extensions on the chart which reflect levels that are of interest to me. While not labeled, price has already reached a point where w.(c) = w.(a) ... the most common relationship. Thus, the limits to hold onto this interpretation would lie below 1447.8.

I hope you found this lesson helpful. Let's leave it there for now. We'll pick up this lesson over the next few days to see how things turned out.


Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

A VIX Fortune Teller?

Fortune-telling is the practice of predicting information about a person's life. Could it also be applied to your trading account? 

The date was November 8, 2012 when I spotted a potential mirror pattern in the VIX. I've been monitoring it ever since and thought that it might be appropriate to update the chart. If you missed the original commentary, read it here at: http://bit.ly/S0ausx

Fast forward, volatility remains low. However should the March low of 11.05 prevail in what appears to be a mirror image of the previous saucer (rounding bottom) pattern ... volatility should pick up. The question to ponder is whether the tea leaves forecast a low in 2015 for the broader market or is this pattern a fraud.

I guess we'll have some time on our hands before we make that distinction!


Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

EURO STOXX 50 Index: A Layman's Study of Bailouts and QE

Sometimes we need few words to describe something. As in this case, the chart identifies that the EU may need to re-think their strategy.

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

ES Daily and 4 Hr Chart

Earlier today I tweeted two key levels of support that I am watching... 1537.25 and 1533.25. On the 4 hr chart,  notice the support level created by the .618 extension lies just below the level where the market found support during Monday's sell-off. Just below that, the .618 retracement has been tested and provided support ( 2 ellipse indicating tests ).

At the daily chart level, 1533.25 lies 2 points below the .618 retracement. From a technical perspective, if a significant breach occurs (on a closing basis), that break would create a lower low and IMO needs to be respected. In addition, the break of the Trendline and the subsequent pullback that tested the underside (now resistance)  bodes well for the bearish case. 

Before attempting to publish a preferred wave count, it's important to note that I'm not trying to call a top here. I believe the current bull cycle is over extended through the FED's policy. Therefore, so long as extraordinary monetary policy prevails and absent any clear signal of a trend reversal I will not be arrogant and attempt to call a top. As many others have found out .... doing so have been futile, time and time again! 

However, I am personally very focused on identifying any key reversal patterns that develop. When the evidence is overwhelming that the advance from 2009 had ended, which also includes a clear five wave impulsive decline, only then will I label the final subdivisions. 

Until then, let's continue to put the pieces together... one wave at a time. 

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Can DOW Recover?

At quarterly chart level price has tested the underside of the previous return trendline that was formed by the 1937 and 1966 peaks.  With 4 tests, the trendline is considered significant and now acts as resistance to further price advances. Unfortunately it's difficult to use the trendline as a short entry mechanism due to the fact that it continues to rise with each passing quarter. Hence, one needs to wait for confirmation that a change in trend has taken place.

Dropping down to the monthly chart level, my preferred wave interpretation is an expanding triangle. Two upside fib extensions are based off the 12/1974 low, the w.b crest and to the 2/2000 peak... projected off w.c. The nearest price objective at this juncture is 14892.11, a stones throw from the recent peak. 

While there is no guarantee that price will reach upside objectives, the take away is that the advance off the 2009 lows is maturing. Each advance exposes a long position to a higher probability of a significant decline. Just as metal investors were complacent, full of greed and lacking of discipline, so to will the crowd be in equities. 

I'm currently focusing on identifying possible reversal patterns that will identify a major top in this market. There are many signs of technical weakness. You'll find them if you do you homework. 

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Euro Update

Here's a partial wave count for the Euro focusing on the most recent price action that is suggestive of an ending diagonal (3.3.3.3.3) pattern. If this interpretation is correct, the minimal elliott target would be the beginning of the pattern 1.2975. Furthermore; the time to reach the objective should take roughly 1/3 to 1/2 the time that it took to build. 

Note: As a educational exercise, one would look at other cross pairings to see if they confirm  Euro weakness. If so, this would bolster confidence in this view.

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

ES: Intraday Update

Interesting development is underway. From the low, bulls are trying to reverse NFP selling. Should bulls be so inclined, the counter-attack (pullback) could reach the lower boundary line, where the Bears may reassert at levels that previously supported the market. 

Let's see what develops. 

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article. 

Update and Yen

I wanted to take a moment to update everyone on a few things.

First, many of my readers may have taken notice that I have been absent on Twitter and limiting the number of my blog posts. Prior to this absence, I made a video regarding 2013 forecasts that was intended to highlight a few of my 2012 winners and losers and to suggest possible BIG MOVES that my work identified for 2013. These themes are playing out. Dispersed within the blog are several other posts regarding Gold, Crude Oil and Copper which were made in late 2012, early 2013.  Combined, these posts serve as my current personal opinion based upon my knowledge of applying technical analysis and more specifically elliott wave to charts.

So Where Have I Been?

My goal for 2013 is to expand my educational services; offer my readers a more comprehensive service and to bring back my newsletter. This cannot be accomplished with the existing blog. I'm happy to announce that I've been working diligently on a website to better serve you. Currently, the site is approximately 60%-70% complete and I am hopeful to have a beta test out for everyone by the end of the Q2 or early Q3.

I promise to keep everyone updated as the launch nears and although to a lesser extend, I'll try to make some blog posts here and there.


That said, I wanted to update everyone on the Yen.

First, the recent three swings in the Yen are suspect. Here's why. The recovery that began on 3/12/13 pushed RSI beyond the high established on 2/25/13 but price was unable to respond. That's a corrective signature which was later confirmed by the decline that followed. However, one could also say that the recent low in Yen, had a swing failure in RSI which doesn't confirm the latest price move to new lows. We also have wave overlap making the highlighted move in blue to date only three waves. The landscape isn't clear.

At the weekly chart level, here is a count I am working. How the current position at the daily chart level materializes may change my preferred interpretation. Therefore, this position must be monitored closely because a bear trap may be setting up.

Given all the BOJ news flow regarding QE, everyone expects that YEN will continue it's sell-off. That may be true in the larger context but price action at the daily chart level might surprise those not paying attention.

The critical levels I'm watching that will provide further insight to the YEN's position are 1.0293 and 1.0789.

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blogsite.   

======================================================================

Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.