Update and Yen

I wanted to take a moment to update everyone on a few things.

First, many of my readers may have taken notice that I have been absent on Twitter and limiting the number of my blog posts. Prior to this absence, I made a video regarding 2013 forecasts that was intended to highlight a few of my 2012 winners and losers and to suggest possible BIG MOVES that my work identified for 2013. These themes are playing out. Dispersed within the blog are several other posts regarding Gold, Crude Oil and Copper which were made in late 2012, early 2013.  Combined, these posts serve as my current personal opinion based upon my knowledge of applying technical analysis and more specifically elliott wave to charts.

So Where Have I Been?

My goal for 2013 is to expand my educational services; offer my readers a more comprehensive service and to bring back my newsletter. This cannot be accomplished with the existing blog. I'm happy to announce that I've been working diligently on a website to better serve you. Currently, the site is approximately 60%-70% complete and I am hopeful to have a beta test out for everyone by the end of the Q2 or early Q3.

I promise to keep everyone updated as the launch nears and although to a lesser extend, I'll try to make some blog posts here and there.


That said, I wanted to update everyone on the Yen.

First, the recent three swings in the Yen are suspect. Here's why. The recovery that began on 3/12/13 pushed RSI beyond the high established on 2/25/13 but price was unable to respond. That's a corrective signature which was later confirmed by the decline that followed. However, one could also say that the recent low in Yen, had a swing failure in RSI which doesn't confirm the latest price move to new lows. We also have wave overlap making the highlighted move in blue to date only three waves. The landscape isn't clear.

At the weekly chart level, here is a count I am working. How the current position at the daily chart level materializes may change my preferred interpretation. Therefore, this position must be monitored closely because a bear trap may be setting up.

Given all the BOJ news flow regarding QE, everyone expects that YEN will continue it's sell-off. That may be true in the larger context but price action at the daily chart level might surprise those not paying attention.

The critical levels I'm watching that will provide further insight to the YEN's position are 1.0293 and 1.0789.

Best of Trading

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Fair Disclosure Notice: I do not have a position in any of the aforementioned futures markets or securities related to this article.