EURO Update

Is The EURO A Tell Of Market Reaction to FED Intentions?

Watch this training video for a real time weekly , daily and 360 minute chart levels. Then, you might draw some insight as to how the market's reaction to any FED decision  will manifest itself. 

As a hint, news is often used to explain or justify why chart patterns or market movement occurs. In reality, news events isn't really the underlying cause.

Best of Trading 

http://youtu.be/mGeY-Nvf4As

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site. 

Silver Tongue Chart

Recently I was reviewing some charts of markets that I don't actively trade and I came across the chart of Silver.  
By definition,  "Silver Tongued" is having or exhibiting the power of fluent and persuasive speech; eloquent.

The monthly, weekly and daily chart levels of Silver are eloquent indeed. 

Watch my video, entitled,  "The Silver Tongue", a monthly, weekly and daily chart level discussion of Silver futures; dominant elliott wave patterns and SLV (silver etf). 

See how I'm approaching this market.

Best of Trading 

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site. 

ES_F Update:

The Manipulators Have Struck Again!

Over the past few days, the governing bodies of Europe have successfully talked up the markets, in particularly,.... Friday's price action was ridiculous! Yet, if readers had been watching my tweet stream, on July 24, I tweeted, " ES_F currently at 1319.5-1320.75 support . If it fails we could see a slide to 1305."


Support actually held and the market hasn't looked back. Two days later, Mario Draghi manipulated the market with his comments to support the Euro at all costs. Friday, more chatter and the market exploded (see chart). The simple fact is that the US equity market response to economic news has increased dramatically!

The above chart is the last chart that I left readers with. Read more about my initial thoughts made on July 18, 2012. 

I have modified the wave labeling and included a price channel. The initial failure to achieve 1397.5 from the 7/19 high of 1376 brought initial concerns to the wave count. The subsequent decline heightened my level of concern when 1320 held (see previous comments above), to end w. (b). The advance from w.(b) low has extended beyond the corrective price channel and suggests the presence of a third wave. As such, it would be difficult to maintain an corrective stance to 1397.5 as price would clearly remain outside of the channel to meet my initial projection where w.y = w.w @ 1397.5. Therefore, I'm updating the possible scenarios that I'm paying particular attention to. 


Note: These patterns below are subject to multiple interpretations which may require further development in order to conclude that any particular pattern is of higher probability than the others. 

1. First, I think it's important to actually look at the CASH market. Here is a possible leading diagonal scenario that would explain the initial advance. You'll notice that there is a clear distinction between the emini contract high on 7/19 and the CASH.  The price objective at 1399.48 would only be applicable IF the July 19 high of 1371.21 is w.A and where w=C of w.2 = .618 w.A. Complicating matters is the thrust from the 7/24 low.... w.C should not have an increasing slope when compared to w.A. Therefore, this scenario is suspect.  

2.  Under scenario 2, the leading diagonal is now labeled w.1 and subsequent price action should follow the script laid out. IMO, the test for this scenario occurs on any meaning full retracement. To maintain this wave count, critical support of 1329.24 can't be violated.

3. Finally, I'm keeping in mind that this larger quarterly pattern may be applicable and what we are seeing right now is the beginning of a five wave sequence to end w.d.


Let's see how things develop. 




Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

You Didn't Build That I Did!

Mixing Politics With The Market

Follow my political views and tweets  @thepoliticalfool

Rarely will you see me combine the market and politics but I found the chart of GM a fitting display of Washington's failed bailout policy... not to mention the jaw-boning over how successful GM has become.The chart speaks for itself. I wonder when the government will cash out it's remaining 26% stake. 


Unless the share price climbs above an unlikely $53 a share before the sale date, the Treasury’s dream of making a profit on the bailout is not going to be realized. At $53 a share, the federal government breaks even on the $50 billion it “loaned” GM, but at the current share price of approximately $19 (well below the $33 IPO price of last November). 


So Mr. President, please stop taking credit for success when your record of loaning taxpayer money is quite frankly, pitiful at best!




Best of Trading

ES Updated Chart

My current preferred count.

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

Natural Gas Chart Update

The chart above is what I left readers in my video.....  Elliott Wave Live: Is It Really Time To Be Bullish Natural Gas?

From the weekly chart, price action has not made any significant advance that confirms a bullish w.1 and negates a w.(4) counter-trend interpretation.

Dropping to the daily chart level, what we do know, as of the time of this post, is the following:

• Price remains within a corrective price channel.
• The move from w.(3) low appears to be in a sharp, three wave zig-zig.
• Price traded to 3.06, very near the level where w.c = w.a @ 3.088

While each bullet point favors a corrective interpretation, only price can confirm a wave count. A price break of 2.659 (key support) may bolster my interpretation, but other bullish scenarios could be applied. Therefore, according to my personal trade plan, I can afford to remain market neutral as described within my original post. 

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

Global Bear or Bull Market - Part II of III

In Part II of this three part series, I'm only updating a few markets that we covered within the links provided in Part I because there isn't a great deal of time elapsed between now and the original charts. There will be no explanation for these counts... I'll leave that for Part III. 


Here's the charts to bring everyone up to speed. 

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 

Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 

A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

Global Bear or Bull Market? Part I of III

The Bull-Bear Debate

With all eyes zoomed in on the European debt debacle, it may be more beneficial for investors to take a more holistic view of inter-market relationships.


At Elliottwavelive, I've always tried to educate, present long term charts (with the exception of my short term futures updates) and display wave counts so that readers can possibly unify the concept of macro investing and technical analysis. 


In Part I of this three part series, we'll re-examine some of my previous analysis as well as some most recent headlines. As you will see, the charts are like chapters of a book. Each tells a story as the book of global macro investing is written. You will find countless examples of this within my blogsite.


In Part II, I'll update the charts to their current market position and present how I form a Bull - Bear thesis. 


In Part III - I'll put it all together with an in-depth look at the US equity Indexes. 

Part I: 

Just Charts:

Lately I have seen countless companies cut guidance. In the early part of June, I made a series of posts that subtly begged readers to consider the implications of what the charts may be revealing.  Here are links to a few key markets that I was watching. I would also recommend looking at additional posts and videos found in the archives section, located at the bottom right side of the blog. Please review them so that the remainder of the parts II and III will make sense. 

Copper and FCX 

Chinese Data Masking a Global Slowdown 


You Decide the Fate of the Markets

Headlines:

Brazil Cuts Rates For 8th Time as Recovery Falters

Copper slips ahead of China GDP data, growth concerns

Australia Employment Drops Unexpectedly

China's Slowdown Spreads Pain Despite Stimulus 

Asian Currencies Fall On Europe Slowdown Concern

Fiscal Cliff Starts to Hit Growth : US Economy On Death Row  

Europe slowdown adds more tension to Greek drama

I shared these headlines because investors form conscious or subconscious opinions that transcend producing day to day volatility spikes. The corresponding wild price swings underlie the battle between fear and greed. Acting, in such a manner, is usually a losing proposition thus our focus will be to initially dispel the headlines news and use technical analysis as a confirming mechanism. 


In closing, I leave you with a question to ponder. Will this be the worst earnings environment that we have seen since the 2007 global meltdown?


Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 


Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 


A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

Coffee Anyone?

My Personal Trade Plan

I've been following the monthly chart of coffee for quite some time. Most recent price action is in three waves to complete w.4 circle. Notice the long shadow tail as the 3-wave structure completed. That's selling pressure right at the .382 retracement of w.3 (not shown). I'm now looking for a 5-wave decline into 135.15 to end the sequence.

Turning my attention to the daily chart, a doji candle, represents indecision and also hints that the advance is complete. 

The final chart of ticker symbol JO shows my target for the completion of w.5 circle at 32.50 where I will be looking to go long this market.

Best of Trading

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ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 


Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 


A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.   

ES_F : Corrective or Impulsive Behavior?

Identifying the wave pattern enclosed within the oval will provide you with the knowledge and confidence to act with minimal risk.

For the purpose of this training exercise, this is a 2-day chart. Please identify the move as either corrective or impulsive.


If you identified the pattern as a 3-wave, counter trend advance, then IMO, that is a correct interpretation. While this doesn't guarantee that a more complex corrective pattern will not develop, it does provide us with an initial bias to the downside.

I've taken the liberty to apply some possible wave labels to illustrate my personal view of the market. Obviously, I'm wrong on any recovery high. A daily close below 1349.50 would be encouraging to the bearish view. However, only a 5-wave decline from 1375 would confirm the intermediate bearish view. 

Should the market cooperate, I'm looking eventually for prints below the w.1 or w.(A) low of 1262. 

Best of Trading

======================================================================

ElliottwaveLive is not an investment advisory service or broker dealer. None of its contributors are registered investment advisors, licensed stock brokers or CTA's. The author may hold short term and long term positions in the futures, stocks and ETF's discussed herein. The author may also trade around those positions which may be in direct conflict with your positions. Complete trade disclosures of the contributor’s holdings are posted at www.elliottwavelive.blogspot.com. See Trader Disclosure. 


Trade at your own risk. The blog site, Newsletter and all other information, material and content accessible from this Site (collectively, the "Content")  provided herein provides the context for market analysis with respect to a market's, a security or a commodity's general position utilizing the Elliott Wave Principle. The Content contained herein are the opinion and general comments of the author and is based upon information that Mr. Sinibaldi considers reliable but neither ElliottWaveLive nor he warrants it's completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sinibaldi or ElliottWaveLive (collectively, referred to as “EWL”) are not under any obligation to update or correct any content provided on this website. Any statements and or opinions are subject to change without notice. The content and comments contained herein neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. 


A more and comprehensive Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statements is available within the left margin of this blog site.