Thursday, July 12, 2012

Global Bear or Bull Market? Part I of III

The Bull-Bear Debate

With all eyes zoomed in on the European debt debacle, it may be more beneficial for investors to take a more holistic view of inter-market relationships.

At Elliottwavelive, I've always tried to educate, present long term charts (with the exception of my short term futures updates) and display wave counts so that readers can possibly unify the concept of macro investing and technical analysis.

In Part I of this three part series, we'll re-examine some of my previous analysis as well as some most recent headlines. As you will see, the charts are like chapters of a book. Each tells a story as the book of global macro investing is written. You will find countless examples of this within my blogsite.

In Part II, I'll update the charts to their current market position and present how I form a Bull - Bear thesis.

In Part III - I'll put it all together with an in-depth look at the US equity Indexes.

Part I:

Just Charts:

Lately I have seen countless companies cut guidance. In the early part of June, I made a series of posts that subtly begged readers to consider the implications of what the charts may be revealing. Here are links to a few key markets that I was watching. I would also recommend looking at additional posts and videos found in the archives section, located at the bottom right side of the blog. Please review them so that the remainder of the parts II and III will make sense.

Copper and FCX

Chinese Data Masking a Global Slowdown

You Decide the Fate of the Markets

Headlines:

Brazil Cuts Rates For 8th Time as Recovery Falters

Copper slips ahead of China GDP data, growth concerns

Australia Employment Drops Unexpectedly

China's Slowdown Spreads Pain Despite Stimulus

Asian Currencies Fall On Europe Slowdown Concern

Fiscal Cliff Starts to Hit Growth : US Economy On Death Row

Europe slowdown adds more tension to Greek drama

I shared these headlines because investors form conscious or subconscious opinions that transcend producing day to day volatility spikes. The corresponding wild price swings underlie the battle between fear and greed. Acting, in such a manner, is usually a losing proposition thus our focus will be to initially dispel the headlines news and use technical analysis as a confirming mechanism.

In closing, I leave you with a question to ponder. Will this be the worst earnings environment that we have seen since the 2007 global meltdown?

Best of Trading

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