Thursday, March 10, 2011

ES_F: Flash Alert

The ON session may have brought some clarity to the wave pattern that began from 1343 (ES1-057) or 133775  (ES-2001106). While none of the pivots that I mentioned in yesterdays post have been broken to signal a near term trend change, I thought that I might provide readers with a possible scenario that might be unfolding.






Looking at the 240 min. chart level, I have labeled the wave structure as a W-X-Y, where w.C of w.Y is unfolding in an ending diagonal and w.Y is a flat correction. I've also included several areas that you might want to watch as the market approaches them. If this scenario plays play out, two Fibonacci clusters are significant:

1. W.Y = W.W at 128125 which is also a 1.272 RF extension of w.b (red)
2.  W.Y= 1.382 RF extension of w.b (red) that is in agreement with 127725... the .382 retracement of w.(4).


As always, trade your levels. Allot can happen that can change this interpretation between the time of the post, the jobs report and the open.

I hope you found this information helpful.

Best of Trading

7 comments:

  1. The market continued to push lower in the ON session. Price pushed lower to 1278.5, almost tagging the 1277, (the 1.382 RF extension downside target). Downside thrust is excellent but momentum is now diverging from price.

    Key areas to watch for any further downside are 126325, 1273 and 1277. Thereafter, I see a counter trend move, possibly lasting the remainder of today as positions are squared going into the weekend.

    Best of Trading

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  2. I like your wave analysis and confirm many of your thoughts. Not to many elliot wave traders out there so its nice to see someone else using a great tool.

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  3. Hey Mike,
    Thanks for your post.
    I have been "trying" to include Elliott wave to my trading during the last year. I have watched couple of seminars at bloomberg with Robert R. Prechter(Genius Guy) and have read couple books about the subject.
    I have found kind you hard to read the wave in a related way, meaning 5 technicians will have 5 different readings. Anyway I will keep reading your post and keep learning more with your expertise.
    Thanks Again.

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  4. Jared and Fabiano - Thank you for your comments.

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  5. Fabiano - I understand your difficulty with the wave principle but there's always more than one interpretation and several ways of labeling the chart. What's important is that the wave structure and labeling correctly identify a trend or correction and that a reasonable expectation for future price movement has been attained.

    Even though I provide wave labeling from an academic view to be interpreted by my readers, my trading focuses on individual waves thus removing the need to match other analysts views.

    As a trading suggestion, stick to identifying individual three and five wave structures. Directional trades from the termination points of these structures should give you a reasonable opportunity. Let the "academics" beat their heads against the wall on big picture stuff.

    Hope this helped.

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