Thursday, July 1, 2010

July 1, 2010 Market Wrap

For tonight's daily wrap up I thought that I would revisit a few charts that I posted earlier in the week to illustrate how they fit within the current price structure. The weekly chart hit a significant support area today at 1006 and is beginning to bounce. We may have seen the termination of wave 1 of 3 today on a daily basis.

If you recall I mentioned that I would get really excited if the daily price action could confirm 5 waves down and a three wave counter trend move  to complete wave 2. It is uncertain whether the market can challenge previous pivot lows of  1 (blue) at 1036.75 or B (red) at 1041.25. A .382 retracement would fulfill the minimum requirements for a 2nd wave retracement. However, most typically, wave 2's are deep retracements of (.5-.786), with a .618 most typical.  A break of 1041.25 would indicate that a larger counter trend move was unfolding. So caution is still warranted at this critical level. I've draw in a proposed 3 wave move in blue ( not to scale in terms of time), just to give a visual aid to what the price structure would look like if the market can break 1041.25. Just focus on the level and identifying three waves up to complete wave 2. Any break below 1006 implies that wave 1 (blue) isn't complete.

Big picture - Since this is a 3rd wave there can be no assurances as to the measurement of the markets mood. Fear and panic will set in in a 3rd wave of a bear market, as those who recovered some of their losses from 2007 will quickly realize that they won't get back to even and be forced to sell or lose even more.



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