The EUR-USD has completed a trend sequence that began on 1/10/11... w.(B). Price action over the early part of May appears to unfolded in an expanding diagonal. This would explain the swift decline as price action of waves that follows a diagonal quickly retraces back to the origin of where the pattern began or 1.4157.
Dropping down to the intraday chart level, the structure of the expanding diagonal can be clearly seen. The decline from 1.4936 counts well as an impulsive wave where w.(iii) is complete and w.(iv) appears to be unfolding in a triangle or possibly an expanded flat that adheres to the rules of alternation due to the fact that w.(ii) was a sharp corrective move. For today, look sideways or up to a maximum of 1.4617 for w.(iv). Thereafter another round of selling should draw prices to the 1.4157 target to complete w.i circle.
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Anything is possible, but it looks to me the correction (intraday chart) is completed ..a counter trend (wave b) may follow...
ReplyDeleteRight on count, wrong on short term direction. W. (iv) most likely ended at 1.4588 and w.(v) is now unfolding.
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