HAS THE DOLLAR TURNED?
Today I was looking for some weakness off the open with respect to the USD. What transpired was a further subdivision upward to complete w.i, followed by what I expected... a w.ii decline. At the close, price appeared to bounce again suggesting that tomorrow we could see further strength manifesting itself as a w.iii.
Conversely, as expected, we did see higher prices in the ES_F but the momentum signature that I discussed in the weekly wrap reached a new high instead of producing a divergence. With respect to the SPX, the ROC moved higher confirming the potential for divergence as a new high was reached.
The market closed very weak. At the time of this post, futures are down 4.75 suggesting further weakness early on into Tuesday's session. While the new recovery high meets the requirements of a completed five waves, the structure is less than desirable. Trade below the lower trendline would give me more confidence that a top may be in place.
Here's the Market's position at the close of trade:
Momentum: Remains OB on weekly and daily time frames. No turn down. 60 min chart level has turned down. Expect selling pressure in the ON session or at the open of Tuesday's trade.
Pattern: final wave.v of wave.c of wave.2
Time: The previous time relationships were negated today as time has exceeded the projections for a top to be made.
Trade Strategy: Remain flat but looking to establish a bearish position as momentum indicators and price confirm a top is in place.
Best of Trading
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