Not much has transpired in the way of price appreciation since Monday. Both Monday and Tuesday were either doji or spinning tops depending on your interpretation. Regardless, they show indecision and declining momentum. What we don't know is whether they are just part of a continuation signature or if they signal that a top is forthcoming. Today showed a slightly more bullish candle that closed near its high. I'll be looking for initial upside momentum to pick up tomorrow or in the ON session.
As I have mentioned, I have to believe that we are going to take out the 6/21/2010 high of 1127.50. My upside target remain at 1134 +/- 1%. There has got to be a tremendous amount of buy stops just above the 6/21/2010 high. One would think that this adds fuel to the fire, pushing prices higher. What's odd is why larger players have not forced the issue in the first 3 days of this week so they can liquidate their longs. The answer might be that there is also allot of overhead supply between 1127.5 and 1150 waiting to break even on longs that were held throughout the decline. It will be interesting to see how much buying will be absorbed from new bearish positions, long liquidations from profit takers and frustrated bulls who finally get a chance to break even. I have to call this a draw between the Bulls and Bears but when the dust clears, the Market should roll over as the Bulls have exhausted their energy.
Finally, for my analysis to turn immediately more bearish, I still need to see a decisive close below 1110 in an impulsive manner with five completed waves.
Next update is on Friday, 9/17/2010.
Best of Trading
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