Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Elliott Wave Market Wrap: June 29, 2010

The last time I left you, the near term outlook for ES-057 called the decline from 1070.5 to 1037.5 as either wave i (green, circle), or that a small 4th wave would unfold before the resumption of downward prices. It looks to me that a small ABC wave iv (blue) completed, followed by the resumption of the trend down. It is unclear as to whether we now have a complete 5 waves down or if prices are still subdividing. We'll have to see what transpires overnight and early tomorrow.

Now turning our attention to the daily chart, three significant events transpired today that remove alternate counts and confirms that wave 2 (blue) is indeed complete and that wave 3 is underway. Price broke through the previous termination point of B (red) as well as the support area of 1036.75. Even more importantly, the corrective base channel for wave 2 was impulsively broken to the downside which is exactly what we want to see. While this is exciting, I'm calling for current prices completed 5 waves down, followed by a retracement to the 1050 handle (see daily chart). From there, I'll be looking to reestablish short positions for the all important 3rd of a 3rd. The initial price target is 940.50 but prices could go much lower.

Best of Trading!

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